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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Military/History Related Hobbies > Research, Reference and Historical Study > Science

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  #1066  
Old 16 Jan 18, 18:42
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2c degrees is significant if you consider that the earths average temperature is 16c. I'm aware that a lot of the warming will take place at the poles in the winter but still it will hopefully be in the .08 to 1 degree range.
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  #1067  
Old 16 Jan 18, 18:56
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Originally Posted by wolfhnd View Post
2c degrees is significant if you consider that the earths average temperature is 16c. I'm aware that a lot of the warming will take place at the poles in the winter but still it will hopefully be in the .08 to 1 degree range.
0.6 C is not quite so significant.
GeoResJ
Volume 14, December 2017, Pages 36-46

The application of machine learning for evaluating anthropogenic versus natural climate change

John Abbot, Jennifer Marohasy


Abstract

Time-series profiles derived from temperature proxies such as tree rings can provide information about past climate. Signal analysis was undertaken of six such datasets, and the resulting component sine waves used as input to an artificial neural network (ANN), a form of machine learning. By optimizing spectral features of the component sine waves, such as periodicity, amplitude and phase, the original temperature profiles were approximately simulated for the late Holocene period to 1830 CE. The ANN models were then used to generate projections of temperatures through the 20th century. The largest deviation between the ANN projections and measured temperatures for six geographically distinct regions was approximately 0.2 C, and from this an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of approximately 0.6 C was estimated. This is considerably less than estimates from the General Circulation Models (GCMs) used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and similar to estimates from spectroscopic methods.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...14242817300426
http://jennifermarohasy.com/2017/08/...rming-natural/

In plain English, the observed recent warming only deviates from what could be expected from natural variability by 0.2 C. If that 0.2 C was due to the rise in atmospheric CO2, this yields a climate sensitivity of 0.6 C per doubling of atmospheric CO2.

Over the past 2,000 years, the average temperature of the Northern Hemisphere has exceeded natural variability (defined as two standard deviations from the pre-1865 mean) three times: 1) the peak of the Medieval Warm Period 2) the nadir of the Little Ice Age and 3) since 1998. Human activities were unlikely to have been the cause of the first two deviations. 70% of the warming since the early 1600s clearly falls within the range of natural variability.



Graph is of 30-yr average temperatures to reflect climatology.
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  #1068  
Old 16 Jan 18, 20:16
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Originally Posted by Pirate-Drakk View Post
Humans will survive just fine. Alarmist end-of-the-world Doomsday claims are ALWAYS wrong.

*Remember Y2K when all the computers stopped working and humanity came to a standstill?

*Remember when the planets "lined up" and Earth was destroyed by earthquakes?

*Remember when the Mayan Calendar (long count) ended along with the Earth and all of humanity?

None of these "disasters" happened as predicted because it was all BS. Just like the horrors of global warming. However, that didn't/won't stop the Doomsday predictions.

Some people like to live in terror and feel victimized. I see it all the time. Perhaps it makes them feel alive.

Dumping CO2 in the atmosphere is NOT POLLUTION any more than pouring clean water into the ocean is pollution.

You have a much higher probability of dying from "Fear of AGW" (agwophobia?) than AGW.
I noticed you edited out your attack on my children as being 'slow'.

Your attack on my children is all I need to know about you.
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  #1069  
Old 16 Jan 18, 20:20
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Originally Posted by Nick the Noodle View Post
I noticed you edited out your attack on my children as being 'slow'.

Your attack on my children is all I need to know about you.
My best 40-yd dash, when I palyed football in high school was about 12 seconds... Really slow. Even at my glacially slow pace, I could easily outrun 3 mm/yr of sea level rise.
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  #1070  
Old 16 Jan 18, 20:24
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My best 40-yd dash, when I palyed football in high school was about 12 seconds... Really slow. Even at my glacially slow pace, I could easily outrun 3 mm/yr of sea level rise.
Er....?

The previous poster attacked my children as being both intellectually and physically slow.

You are just stating you are slow?

Not sure of the relevance?
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  #1071  
Old 16 Jan 18, 20:33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick the Noodle View Post
Er....?

The previous poster attacked my children as being both intellectually and physically slow.

You are just stating you are slow?

Not sure of the relevance?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pirate-Drakk View Post
Are your children so "slow" they can't outrun a 7" per century sea level rise and not drown?


Or will they be overwhelmed by the jungle planet we create with all that CO2 and heat, turning the planet into a giant Green House Jungle (oh, are greenhouses BAD?). I foresee a Planet of the Apes! The horrors that await us...


I need a Darwin emoji!
7"/century = 178 mm/century... That's 1.8 mm/yr



A person would have to be slower than a statue to not outrun 1.8-1.9 mm/yr of sea level rise.

Even if the rate was 3 mm/yr, the slowness required to not outrun sea level rise would be statue-slow.

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  #1072  
Old 17 Jan 18, 03:57
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Originally Posted by Nick the Noodle View Post
I noticed you edited out your attack on my children as being 'slow'.

Your attack on my children is all I need to know about you.
I was not attacking your children. Was a good/bad pun but perhaps inappropriate. I am a Pirate after all... ARRRRR!


I agree, this needs to be a civil discussion.

My apologies!
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