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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > The Middle East > Syrian Civil War, 2011 - ?

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Syrian Civil War, 2011 - ? From a local uprising to a proxy war, we discuss the chaos in Syria.

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  #31  
Old 17 Nov 17, 16:01
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Originally Posted by Escape2Victory View Post
I don't see how anyone can call it at this stage. Too many actors and hard to gauge how much each of them will risk, what counter-responses this will bring etc.

I think it will be a messy few years with plenty of surprises.
Exactly!

ISIS/ISIL/IS is just another head of the Hydra known as Islamic Jihad. AQ is another and there remain many more, present and future. Until the USA/West have a more comprehensive Strategy, or better yet, Grand Strategy for dealing with Fundamental Islamic Jihad, "We" likely shouldn't be taking Bold and Rash moves here.

FIJ has been a source of 1400 years in this region and about the globe, and pending an effect countery Grand Strategy, we Kafirs can expect another 1400 years of conflict and stife "here" and because of ...

At the moment, a reactive and "wait-n-see" approach is desirable, but time is running out to craft an effect strategy that doesn't see essential ground or goals lost. We are seeing a number of factions and agendas in play throughout this region(Middle East) and the Issues are a mix of geographic(geo-political) along with ideological (Religious/Spiritual) ~ makes for a confusing mix of characters to deal with.

Recent "upset" in Saudi Arabia may be a clue to develop. With Iraq acting as BFF to Iran, could be that SA sees an alignment that gives them some additional security concerns regarding their neighbors to the North.

We are seeing some interesting "flux" in play here and there are valid USA/West concerns here. Even though the USA doesn't get as much petroleum/oil from the ME as we did a few decades ago, there is still a significant world's supply in the ME. Petroleum is an international supply and costs market and any significant impact to the global flow/exchange can also impact the petroleum related markets and economy of the USA, and the West. With everyone increasingly linked in the global economy, the trickle down and flow up is circular; major events in one part of the world can impact other parts.

More after I've given more thought (chores to do).
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  #32  
Old 18 Nov 17, 19:15
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Originally Posted by ljadw View Post
1) Russia has influence in Syria since decades .

2) People as Pinochet, Mobutu, Franco....

3) What Assad is doing in Syria is not the business of the US .

As Teresa May said :

"The days are over when we intervened in sovereign countries to reshape the world to our image ."

The White Man's Burden is something of the past . We have enough problems at home .
1. fine, keep it from growing, but definitely keep it from spreading.
2. *doesnt like dictators the US didn't install (better)
3. never said it was, but many self righteous people think it is.
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  #33  
Old 18 Nov 17, 19:16
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Originally Posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
It is completely relevant.

The media cares about the gas attacks, but the voters do not.

Remember Bobo's 'Red Line'? Tough talk that was all bluff because their wasn't voter support for a hard line.

If it wasn't a campaign issue in 2016, it isn't important in 2017. We can walk away at literally any moment without any issue.

Tie a pull-out to part of the tax break and the voters will cheer it on.

The US involvement in Syria has no political reward; nothing we will do there will produce significant domestic political value.
i think NK kind of overshadowed syria a bit, but if more and more atrocities are committed by assad/pro-assad forces, i think it could greatly increase the calls for intervention and action.
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  #34  
Old 19 Nov 17, 09:39
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Originally Posted by General_Jacke View Post
i think NK kind of overshadowed syria a bit, but if more and more atrocities are committed by assad/pro-assad forces, i think it could greatly increase the calls for intervention and action.
Remember Bobo's 'red line'?

The killing didn't stop, and we did not intervene in any meaningful fashion.

Are you going to enlist and volunteer to serve in as ground war in Syria?

I don't see American voters wanting to risk our troops' lives in another backwards, multi-factional conflict that can only lead to another expensive round of nation building.

Particularly in a nation that has been extremely hostile to us for decades.

There's no up side to it at all.
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Old 19 Nov 17, 22:39
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Originally Posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
Remember Bobo's 'red line'?

The killing didn't stop, and we did not intervene in any meaningful fashion.

Are you going to enlist and volunteer to serve in as ground war in Syria?

I don't see American voters wanting to risk our troops' lives in another backwards, multi-factional conflict that can only lead to another expensive round of nation building.

Particularly in a nation that has been extremely hostile to us for decades.

There's no up side to it at all.
i already did my enlistment. shore of WWIII you won't see me doing any fighting outside of my community for almost any reason.

i do agree however that you shouldn't advocate for a war you're not willing to go and fight yourself.
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  #36  
Old 20 Nov 17, 06:44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by General_Jacke View Post
i already did my enlistment. shore of WWIII you won't see me doing any fighting outside of my community for almost any reason.

i do agree however that you shouldn't advocate for a war you're not willing to go and fight yourself.
Good that you served! That gives you credibility.

However, I don't believe American voters care enough about Syrian death tolls to get into a ground war. And without ground intervention, we won't have that much impact.

Time will tell.
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  #37  
Old 20 Nov 17, 09:44
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Originally Posted by G David Bock View Post
Exactly!

ISIS/ISIL/IS is just another head of the Hydra known as Islamic Jihad. AQ is another and there remain many more, present and future. Until the USA/West have a more comprehensive Strategy, or better yet, Grand Strategy for dealing with Fundamental Islamic Jihad, "We" likely shouldn't be taking Bold and Rash moves here.......
It's a lot more complicated than that.

ISIS and AQ are actually enemies, and have been in conflict with each other. I remember reading that the Taliban has sent fighters to Syria to fight against ISIS, and ISIS have sent fighters to Afghanistan to fight against the Taliban.
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  #38  
Old 20 Nov 17, 12:12
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Originally Posted by JFKvsNixon View Post
It's a lot more complicated than that.

ISIS and AQ are actually enemies, and have been in conflict with each other. I remember reading that the Taliban has sent fighters to Syria to fight against ISIS, and ISIS have sent fighters to Afghanistan to fight against the Taliban.
Sunni and Shia will fight with each other, most over issue of how to determine Caliphate, yet both factions will advocate and pursue Global Islamic Jihad as proscribed by Muhammad. "Flavor" of Islam is as important to some as Islam versus the Kafir.

All covered earlier and in more detail in this thread;
Islam - Jihad - GWOT
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