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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > Africa

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Africa Issues of modern Africa.

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  #16  
Old 16 Nov 17, 04:47
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andrewza has a spectacular aura about [400]
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Opion from south africa is mostly happy or not carrying. Unless the army starts to do stupid things any actions would be just talk. All so the general that is in charge just returned from China so I suspect China Mugby's only real friend is in on this or at least supports it. SADC nations not care enough or out right want him gone. So yeah all in all a solid take over.


As for why. It is Mugby's wife Grace. She wanted to replace him after he died and has been doing a lot of back door manvouring have people replaced who are loyal to her. Problem is those people replaced where ex Miltary or freedom fighters. When the VP Emmerson Mnangagwa was removed I guess back door politics met the tried and tested never defeated Bigger Army diplomacy.

The out come I see is Mugby reappointment Emmerson Mnangagwa as VP then steps down. Army remains in control due to state of emergency for at least 90 days. Then there is a emergency vote for president and since all those not loyal to Emmerson Mnangagwa are locked up by the army he becomes the official president of Zimbabwe. Final step is the tried and test anti corruption purge to cement Control.


Mugby is still hailed as so. E hero Grace looses her power and as soon as Mugby dies is all so moved against. So she probably going to Move down south.
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  #17  
Old 17 Nov 17, 19:42
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Mugabe's own party has now voted for him to stand down. The writing has got to be on the wall.
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Old 18 Nov 17, 19:16
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People out in the streets protesting against Mugabe/celebrating his demise. That is a massive message to any Grace Mugabe supporters who might be thinking there is a way back here. The Army, 'War Veterans', ZANU-PF youth wing, most of the rest of ZANU-PF, the Opposition, China, Sth Africa & the US (and everyone else) are fine with Mugabe's removal.

I suspect they are now negotiating their exit. In the best tradition of African 'big men' he will get to take a few key possessions - like diamond encrusted limos & truckloads of money. The billions they have stashed overseas will keep Grace in style for a few years.

Random aside: a few years back a mate of mine who travels regularly to Africa was at the Hilton in Addis. As was his custom he got up early on a misty morning to go for a swim. As he began to walk down the stair to the outdoor pool he saw a tiny, elderly man in front of him. Mugabe. No bodyguards (they were nearby). My mate momentarily contemplated pushing him down the stairs. Easy enough to do. He decided that his young kids needed their dad, so Mugabe got to live for a few more years.
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Old 19 Nov 17, 08:47
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People out in the streets protesting against Mugabe/celebrating his demise. That is a massive message to any Grace Mugabe supporters who might be thinking there is a way back here. The Army, 'War Veterans', ZANU-PF youth wing, most of the rest of ZANU-PF, the Opposition, China, Sth Africa & the US (and everyone else) are fine with Mugabe's removal.

I suspect they are now negotiating their exit. In the best tradition of African 'big men' he will get to take a few key possessions - like diamond encrusted limos & truckloads of money. The billions they have stashed overseas will keep Grace in style for a few years.

.
He appears to be hanging on tight. They'll have to figuratively break his fingers to get him to let go of the presidency. The process has begun as his own party has now sacked his as their leader, appointed Mnangagwa in his place and booted Grace out completely. If that doesn't do the job then Parliament will start impeachment processes tomorrow.
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  #20  
Old 19 Nov 17, 13:28
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After a meeting with the military and police it has been announced that Mugabe will address the nation. As the army control the broadcasting facilities this is only possible with their approval. It would seem inconceivable that they would let him do so without agreeing what he is going to say so it looks very much like some form of resignation announcement.

It would be in line with his pattern of behaviour for him to blame the whole thing on the malign machinations of British undercover operations establishing Zimbabwe's economy etc etc. If only our undercover organisation were that capable!
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Old 20 Nov 17, 02:53
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It would seem inconceivable that they would let him do so without agreeing what he is going to say.........
......or not.

Looks like it will be broken fingers. Clearly they want to make is as 'constitutional' as they can (ironic in a dictatorship) to avoid the international complications of a formal coup. He doesn't seem to have any support left.

The Pollyanna part of me wants to believe this will mean that Zanu-PF begins to lose its grip on power, but the intellectual part of me isn't convinced. This looks more like the jostling after Stalin or Mao died. The people who spent years committing crimes jostling for power.
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  #22  
Old 20 Nov 17, 06:41
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......or not.

Looks like it will be broken fingers. Clearly they want to make is as 'constitutional' as they can (ironic in a dictatorship) to avoid the international complications of a formal coup. He doesn't seem to have any support left.

The Pollyanna part of me wants to believe this will mean that Zanu-PF begins to lose its grip on power, but the intellectual part of me isn't convinced. This looks more like the jostling after Stalin or Mao died. The people who spent years committing crimes jostling for power.
The latest theory is that Mugabe promised to resign and then went off script in the broadcasting studio. Very inept of the military to allow a live broadcast they should have insisted on him recording the message.

I wonder if he is suffering from dementia - he doesn't appear to realise that he has lost his party's leadership.

Given the desperate state of the country the jostling has more the ring of that in the Fuhrer bunker than Moscow.

The currency is collapsing yet again , unemployment in places is about 90% Agriculture is in ruins so they are dependent on imported food. Whoever takes over is going to be relying on the good will of the international community.
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  #23  
Old 21 Nov 17, 08:43
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Mugabe called a cabinet meeting this morning - of the 23 strong cabinet 6 turned up but he still doesn't seem to get the message
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  #24  
Old 21 Nov 17, 13:51
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Well he's resigned - question is will he remember that he has resigned?

Interesting item that emerged in the impeachment proceedings before they were called off. Whilst President he dismissed three vice presidents because they were "plotting to kill him" and seven ministers because "they wanted to kill him". Not even Gaius Julius Caesar Augustus Germanicus (Caligula) or Lucius Aelius Aurelius Commodus were that twitchy.
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Old 21 Nov 17, 15:56
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Yay! Many decades too late.
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Old 22 Nov 17, 04:11
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Of course the replacement is no bastion of peace and democracy. Though he at least seems less crazy and there for some one that can be talked to
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Old 26 Nov 17, 22:46
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http://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-421285...-robert-mugabe
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