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  #1  
Old 23 Aug 17, 06:31
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Brexit and Northern Ireland

In the current negotiations, or what passes for them, between the EU and the UK about Brexit both sides are paying huge amounts of lip service to Northern Ireland and itís boarder with the EU.
The throw away comments are the there will be a technological solution; cameras and all sorts of Tech that none of us has ever heard of. The other scenario is a US-Canada type border. Iíve crossed between the Us and Canada a few times and it is nothing like an open border; there are guards and guns and dogs and flags. Currently I know Iím in Northern Ireland when the road signs change from Km to miles.
The real losers when, and it will be when, a hard border is in place will be Northern Ireland. Since Partition their economy has effectively collapsed. In 1920 80% of the Industrial output of this country came from the Belfast area. It was the biggest city in Ireland with around 400,000 people living there ( and across Northern Ireland income levels were significantly higher than the rest of the country. That economy was build on innovation and an entrepreneurial culture. Roll forward to now and exports from Ireland are 15 times greater than Northern Ireland, with industrial output being 10 times higher. Per capita incomes are much higher in Ireland than Northern Ireland and our economy can sustain itself; our budget deficit is 1% of GDP, without the subsidy from Whitehall the budget deficit in Northern Ireland would be 25%.
Emigration is a good indication of where a country is at; if itís doing well and a good place to be then people want to move there. Currently one in every six people here are foreign born. In the North itís less than one in one hundred.
Brexit and a hard border will be an economic disaster for Northern Ireland. It shows that when people in the rest of the UK were deciding what way to vote the fate of their countrymen in Northern Ireland was not even given a passing consideration.

So, my question for British posters (as opposed to UK posters) here is this; do you really consider Northern Ireland to be part of your country?
I ask because people vote with their pockets and if economic and population trends continue it is inevitable that at some stage in the not too distant future a majority of people in Northern Ireland will want a united Ireland and therefore weíll be lumbered with them; a welfare dependent basket case with no industry, no functioning economy with nothing to offer anyone but tribalism and bigotry. Iíd really like it if you could pay attention to a part of your country you fought a war to keep and sort it out. You broke it so you can fix it.
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  #2  
Old 23 Aug 17, 07:42
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The key point here is that demographic trends mean Northern Ireland will likely join the republic some decades in the future. By that point, the EU in its current form will likely have folded. The smart thing for the Republic to do is start planning for how they will run a united Ireland without EU subsidies, possibly to include having to deal with a loyalist terror campaign that reaches Dublin and a brain drain of the more able and mobile Protestants.

There may be some short terms flapping and moralising in the coming years, but pragmatically, this longer term thought is needed by the Republic.
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Old 23 Aug 17, 08:44
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Originally Posted by Escape2Victory View Post
The key point here is that demographic trends mean Northern Ireland will likely join the republic some decades in the future. By that point, the EU in its current form will likely have folded. The smart thing for the Republic to do is start planning for how they will run a united Ireland without EU subsidies, possibly to include having to deal with a loyalist terror campaign that reaches Dublin and a brain drain of the more able and mobile Protestants.
We are a net contributor to the EU so that bit wouldn't be a problem though I don't see any scenario in which the EU folds, despite the postulations of the little-Englanders who wish it were so.

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There may be some short terms flapping and moralising in the coming years, but pragmatically, this longer term thought is needed by the Republic.
We are already planning for it but can't do so at any high level or else the Unionists will throw their toys out of the pram.
If we do take it off your hands you'll have to pay a much bigger exit bill than the EU are looking for!
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Old 23 Aug 17, 11:53
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Economically the gap in GDP between Northern Ireland and Ireland is Similar to East and West Germany in 1990. The respective economies also have parallels.
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Old 23 Aug 17, 12:50
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Originally Posted by E.D. Morel View Post
Economically the gap in GDP between Northern Ireland and Ireland is Similar to East and West Germany in 1990. The respective economies also have parallels.
But then again, all the big tech companies might feck off to Northern Ireland, since everything is much cheaper there(like it was in Ireland some years ago with the massive immigration; now it has trickled down quite a lot). How much is a pint in Dublin? The rents have gone over the roof years ago...

Actually, the tech companies/call centers and whatnot are heading for Eastern European countries.
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Old 23 Aug 17, 13:06
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Originally Posted by E.D. Morel View Post
We are a net contributor to the EU so that bit wouldn't be a problem though I don't see any scenario in which the EU folds, despite the postulations of the little-Englanders who wish it were so.

We are already planning for it but can't do so at any high level or else the Unionists will throw their toys out of the pram.
If we do take it off your hands you'll have to pay a much bigger exit bill than the EU are looking for!
Ireland has recently tipped into a tiny contribution after many years of milking the taxpayers of the U.K. France and Germany, mostly. That is what has paid for Irish development and future work will require Irish endeavour, not the EU gravy train. When Irish taxpayers are tapped for the cash, we shall see how academic the whole exercise is.
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Old 23 Aug 17, 13:08
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Originally Posted by E.D. Morel View Post
Economically the gap in GDP between Northern Ireland and Ireland is Similar to East and West Germany in 1990. The respective economies also have parallels.
Would be nice to have some stats to back that up. Seems a wild claim not me but I am a numbers guy and if the data is there....
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Old 23 Aug 17, 13:10
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Would be nice to have some stats to back that up. Seems a wild claim not me but I am a numbers guy and if the data is there....
Sure, here's my source. It took me a while to find it as I just remembered reading it.
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Old 23 Aug 17, 13:31
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Sure, here's my source. It took me a while to find it as I just remembered reading it.
The article mentions a big disparity in per capita GDP. It isn't the only relative measure, but is an important one. Looks like you will be getting a fair few state benefit dependents on reunification then. Best start saving up!
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Old 23 Aug 17, 13:32
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Originally Posted by Escape2Victory View Post
The article mentions a big disparity in per capita GDP. It isn't the only relative measure, but is an important one. Looks like you will be getting a fair few state benefit dependents on reunification then. Best start saving up!
Oh no, you can keep them!!
I agree that GDP is a relative measure, and not a very good one in our case. GNP is a better indication of real wealth but it's hard to get GNP per capita figures.
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Old 23 Aug 17, 13:38
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But then again, all the big tech companies might feck off to Northern Ireland, since everything is much cheaper there(like it was in Ireland some years ago with the massive immigration; now it has trickled down quite a lot). How much is a pint in Dublin? The rents have gone over the roof years ago...

Actually, the tech companies/call centers and whatnot are heading for Eastern European countries.
Yep, victims of our own success (and excess).
If we can just get rid of the pro-cyclical socialist political establishment we'd be fine.
A Pint in Dublin costs between Ä4.20 and Ä6.50.
If you go to the tourist areas like Temple Bar you'll be fleeced but that's the same in most cities.
We still get about one third of all American FDI into the EU every year which is not bad as we are only 0.64% of the EU's population.
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Old 23 Aug 17, 13:53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Escape2Victory View Post
Ireland has recently tipped into a tiny contribution after many years of milking the taxpayers of the U.K. France and Germany, mostly. That is what has paid for Irish development and future work will require Irish endeavour, not the EU gravy train. When Irish taxpayers are tapped for the cash, we shall see how academic the whole exercise is.
True, but the impact of EU funding (in and out)is often over stated. Just look at the BS that was spouted over there during the Brexit referendum.
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Old 24 Aug 17, 15:27
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Economically the gap in GDP between Northern Ireland and Ireland is Similar to East and West Germany in 1990.
Irish GDP has lost touch with reality thanks to the actions of US multi-nationals using it as a tax haven. If you look at the rich countries of the EU and their GDP as a percentage of the EU average:

Luxembourg 267%
Ireland 177%
Netherlands 128%
Austria 126%
Denmark 125%
Sweden 124%
Germany 123%

The two tax havens, Luxembourg and Ireland, have GDP figures completely out of line with the rest of the EU.

The problem with Ireland absorbing Northern Ireland is that whilst NI GDP is undoubtedly lower than the Republic's, NI has a much higher standard of living.

Actual Individual Consumption for EU countries:

Luxembourg 132%
Germany 122%
Austria 118%
UK 115%
Denmark 114%
Finland 114%
Belgium 113%
France 111%
Netherlands 111%
Sweden 111%
Ireland 97%
Italy 97%

Northern Ireland has a deficit of about £5,500 per person, so the population of the Republic would have to pay about £2,100 more per person (per person, not per taxpayer) to keep them in the style to which they have become accustomed.

West Germany was prepared to pay a lot of money to bail out East Germany because the East was very poor. Would the Republic be prepared to pay that much to the North to subsidise their much higher standard of living? It doesn't seem likely to me.
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Old 25 Aug 17, 05:44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hop View Post
Irish GDP has lost touch with reality thanks to the actions of US multi-nationals using it as a tax haven. If you look at the rich countries of the EU and their GDP as a percentage of the EU average:

Luxembourg 267%
Ireland 177%
Netherlands 128%
Austria 126%
Denmark 125%
Sweden 124%
Germany 123%

The two tax havens, Luxembourg and Ireland, have GDP figures completely out of line with the rest of the EU.
The biggest tax haven in the world is the City of London so Iíd be more circumspect in the language I use if I was you.
The Pharma and Medical device companies who pay their taxes here also manufacture here. We are the second biggest producer of artificial knees and hips in the world and the second biggest manufacturer of cardiovascular stents. Half of all the commercial aircraft in the world are leased and half of those are leased from Ireland.


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The problem with Ireland absorbing Northern Ireland is that whilst NI GDP is undoubtedly lower than the Republic's, NI has a much higher standard of living.
Nonsense. Average pay levels in Northern Ireland are £8000 a year lower than in Ireland and nearly £5,0000 lower than the UK average. The jobs they have in the private sector are generally low vale add and they have a totally disproportionate number of people employed in the public sector. It is the poorest region of the UK.

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Originally Posted by Hop View Post
Actual Individual Consumption for EU countries:

Luxembourg 132%
Germany 122%
Austria 118%
UK 115%
Denmark 114%
Finland 114%
Belgium 113%
France 111%
Netherlands 111%
Sweden 111%
Ireland 97%
Italy 97%
You do know the difference between income and consumption, right? You do know that London completely distorts the figures for the UK, right? All that dirty Russian money and Arab wealth flowing in pushes up prices and consumption levels and while the median remains low the average increases.

The best figures to use for assessing real incomes per head is Gross National Incomes per person expressed in PPP Purchasing Power Parity. GNI has replaced GNP as while it expresses the same idea it is calculated in a more comprehensive way. 2016 stat's are;
Ireland is at $51,721.7, the UK is at $38,432.0 and Luxembourg is at $49,478. Source

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hop View Post
Northern Ireland has a deficit of about £5,500 per person, so the population of the Republic would have to pay about £2,100 more per person (per person, not per taxpayer) to keep them in the style to which they have become accustomed.
Yes, thatís the point I was making.

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Originally Posted by Hop View Post
West Germany was prepared to pay a lot of money to bail out East Germany because the East was very poor. Would the Republic be prepared to pay that much to the North to subsidise their much higher standard of living? It doesn't seem likely to me.
As I have pointed out above, your assertion that the standard of living is higher in Northern Ireland is totally false.
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