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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > The Middle East > Syrian Civil War, 2011 - ?

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Syrian Civil War, 2011 - ? From a local uprising to a proxy war, we discuss the chaos in Syria.

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  #91  
Old 19 Jun 17, 08:31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skoblin View Post
I am actually quite critical of my sources and - as with coverage of the events which had been occurring in the eastern Ukraine previously - I drop sources if their claims turn out to be spurious and retain those which have a proven track record - regardless of which side of the conflict they are on.

Regarding Nr 3. YPG signs 10 year military agreement with the US. Here is a non-twitter source
http://www.manbij.org/2017/06/ypg.html?m=1
"A spokesperson for the US-led Coalition told Grasswire on Sunday, June 18, that reports of a deal between the US and the Syrian Kurdish YPG are false."

And can you imagine Turkish and Erdogan's reaction if it were true.
https://www.grasswire.com/2017/06/sy...eal-ypg-false/
Quote:
Originally Posted by Skoblin View Post
Regarding Nr. 4. US forces begin airlifting SDF/YPG forces to southern Syria to buttress flagging FSA units
Here is a non-twitter source from two days ago
http://www.basnews.com/index.php/en/...o_desktop_ui=1
Basnews is Barzani's propaganda outfit and it should not be relied on anything concerning YPG/PYD/SDF. Article included gem like this: "The source stressed that SDF will move to any area chosen for them by the Global Coalition in Syria, whether in Daraa or in the province of Idlib". Sure YPG will send troops to Iblid which is infested with Al-Qaida with whom they just clashed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Skoblin View Post
As for Nr. 5. Every map posted until yesterday clearly showed the SDF located at least 6-7 miles north of Resafa. Suddenly, yesterday, the SDF was apparently located just north of the town - a move coinciding with the Syrian army's attempt to reach the town from the west. All maps until yesterday morning also clearly showed the town of Ja'Din in ISIS hands. It was then reportedly captured by the SAA yesterday afternoon. 5 hours later, the Syrian aircraft was shot down. An hour or so later the Coalition Command claimed Syrian forces had attacked "SDF-held Ja'Din".

Three days ago - Ja'Din in ISIS hands/SDF about 10-12 kilometers north of Resafa.

Suddenly, yesterday, the SDF decided to make a move on Resafa from the north - the sole purpose could only be to block the SAA. Note: the red square east of Resafa shows where the Syrian aircraft was shot down.
Simplest explanation is that SDF wants bigger bufferzone around Raqqa especially since there has been rumors that SAA might try to enter Raqqa from south. After all Russia/SAA started accidentally bomb SDF and spreading rumor of deal with IS after SDF rejected Russian participation in Raqqa operation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Skoblin View Post
As for the claim "the SAA does not need a northern route as they can advance to Deir ez-Zor from Palmyra or from T2 which they reached yesterday".

1. SAA forces have made little headway against ISIS east of Palmyra. It has taken them weeks just to capture Arak and the Talia oil fields from strongly entrenched ISIS forces
2. The SAA force which allegedly captured the T2 pumping station yesterday appears to be no more than a reinforced reconnaissance unit. It has neither the numbers nor a secure supply line for assaulting any reinforced or strongly held ISIS position.
3. Abandoning the northern route to Deir ez-Zor means abandoning the entire area south/south-east of Taqba to the SDF - an area including numerous oil fields
1. and 2. SAA can always transfer Tiger forces to south if Dez is priority.
3. Same way SDF probably doesn't want to just give them to SAA.
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Last edited by JML; 19 Jun 17 at 08:38..
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  #92  
Old 22 Jun 17, 06:10
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Quote:
U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told his Turkish counterpart that weapons provided to the Kurdish YPG militia in Syria would be taken back once Islamic State was defeated, Turkish defence ministry sources said on Thursday.
In a letter to Turkey's Defence Minister Fikri Isik, Mattis said the United States had informed Turkey about the weapons it had given the YPG and that it would provide monthly lists of the arms supplied, the sources said in a statement.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mid...KBN19D10P?il=0

And the Kurds will meekly comply and hand everything back...
If I were the Kurds, I wouldn't hand anything back. Why should they? And how would this be enforced?
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Old 22 Jun 17, 08:17
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Quote:
Turkish defence ministry sources said on Thursday.
Me, I think they're talking BS.

Probably sounds good to the most gullible part of Turkish public opinion, who believe basically everything their government tells them.
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  #94  
Old 23 Jun 17, 03:49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skoblin View Post
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mid...KBN19D10P?il=0

And the Kurds will meekly comply and hand everything back...
If I were the Kurds, I wouldn't hand anything back. Why should they? And how would this be enforced?
Good luck enforcing that one! About as much chance as if they had asked the muj to return weapons in Afghanistan. Maybe some token face saving deal will be done.
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  #95  
Old 25 Jun 17, 04:36
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The zigzag direction of US Middle East policy under Trump continues...
Quote:
The U.S. military coalition fighting the Islamic State would welcome a concerted effort by the Syrian government or its Iranian-backed partner forces to defeat IS in its remaining strongholds in eastern Syria, a U.S. spokesman said Friday.

Army Col. Ryan Dillon, spokesman for the coalition, told reporters at the Pentagon that the U.S. goal is to defeat IS wherever it exists. If others, including the Syrian government and its Iranian and Russian allies, want to fight the extremists as well, then "we absolutely have no problem with that," he said, speaking from Baghdad.
https://apnews.com/amp/203103329c594ecf94352632eebd3169
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  #96  
Old 25 Jun 17, 08:09
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Veteran investigative reporter Seymour Hersh regarding the alleged chemical attack at Kahn Sheikhun and Trump's decision to attack Syria
Quote:
On April 6, United States President Donald Trump authorized an early morning Tomahawk missile strike on Shayrat Air Base in central Syria in retaliation for what he said was a deadly nerve agent attack carried out by the Syrian government two days earlier in the rebel-held town of Khan Sheikhoun. Trump issued the order despite having been warned by the U.S. intelligence community that it had found no evidence that the Syrians had used a chemical weapon.

The available intelligence made clear that the Syrians had targeted a jihadist meeting site on April 4 using a Russian-supplied guided bomb equipped with conventional explosives. Details of the attack, including information on its so-called high-value targets, had been provided by the Russians days in advance to American and allied military officials in Doha, whose mission is to coordinate all U.S., allied, Syrian and Russian Air Force operations in the region.


Some American military and intelligence officials were especially distressed by the president's determination to ignore the evidence. "None of this makes any sense," one officer told colleagues upon learning of the decision to bomb. "We KNOW that there was no chemical attack ... the Russians are furious. Claiming we have the real intel and know the truth ... I guess it didn't matter whether we elected Clinton or Trump.“
--------

To the dismay of many senior members of his national security team, Trump could not be swayed over the next 48 hours of intense briefings and decision-making. In a series of interviews, I learned of the total disconnect between the president and many of his military advisers and intelligence officials, as well as officers on the ground in the region who had an entirely different understanding of the nature of Syria’s attack on Khan Sheikhoun. I was provided with evidence of that disconnect, in the form of transcripts of real-time communications, immediately following the Syrian attack on April 4.
https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/...-Red-Line.html
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  #97  
Old Yesterday, 13:06
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skoblin View Post
Veteran investigative reporter Seymour Hersh regarding the alleged chemical attack at Kahn Sheikhun and Trump's decision to attack Syria
https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/...-Red-Line.html
This hits all the marks on the "Totally Fake News" checklist: negative about Trump, relies on anonymous sources, and from the mainstream media.

But seriously, when reading through the article I am struck by what seems like the reliance upon one single, unnamed source - the "senior advisor". I've seen people castigate articles for far less. That's not to say that he didn't do his work (if only journalism were so easy) but I imagine the veracity of the article will, like so much in today's world (and going doubly so for anything involving Syria or Ukraine) be accepted or dismissed based on the readers established beliefs.

The article doesn't make a strong enough case that the attack was just a big lie everyone in the west is going along with, and it's lack of any sources willing to go on the record is a major weakness for such a major claim. It's good writing and a succinct summary of events, but it still boils down to "I have the word of one guy I can't name and documents I can't show you".

Again, journalism ain't the same thing as proving a case in court, but people are in a mood to label anything they disagree with as a product of bias, corruption (in Soros and non-Soros flavors) and general anti-<proper noun> sentiment. These days you need to have footage of the event and a signed confession by those involved before people will betray their ideological kin.

Anything less can just be explained away as being the fault of the author/source/nation.
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  #98  
Old Today, 00:01
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Guess we know where a keyhole is...

The US says it has identified "potential preparations" for another chemical attack in Syria, and issued a stark warning to the Syrian government.
The White House said the activities were similar to those made before a suspected chemical attack in April.
Dozens died in that attack and prompted President Donald Trump to order a strike against a Syrian air base.
The US statement warned President Bashar al-Assad of "a heavy price" if another strike occurred.
It said "another chemical weapons attack by the Assad regime" was likely to result "in the mass murder of civilians".
The statement added: "As we have previously stated, the United States is in Syria to eliminate the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. If, however, Mr Assad conducts another mass murder attack using chemical weapons, he and his military will pay a heavy price."

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40413563
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  #99  
Old Today, 02:50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daemon of Decay View Post
But seriously, when reading through the article I am struck by what seems like the reliance upon one single, unnamed source - the "senior advisor". I've seen people castigate articles for far less. That's not to say that he didn't do his work (if only journalism were so easy) but I imagine the veracity of the article will, like so much in today's world (and going doubly so for anything involving Syria or Ukraine) be accepted or dismissed based on the readers established beliefs.
That is pretty much it. Most of the Russia-Trump stories seem held together by one or two unnamed sources, yet are sufficient to dominate the airwaves. I don't know personally whether Hersh's claims are true or not. He does have a more substantial CV when it comes to investigative reporting than many of the present crop of "journalists", but this does not make him immune to churning out "false news" like everyone else.
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Quote:
US-led coalition air strikes on two Syrian provinces targeting jihadists have killed 472 civilians over the past month, a monitor said Friday, more than double a previous 30-day toll.The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the period between May 23 and June 23 saw the highest civilian death toll in coalition raids for a single month since they began on September 23, 2014.
Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman said 222 civilians, including 84 children, were killed in the largely Islamic State group-held province of Deir Ezzor.
Another 250 civilians, including 53 children, were killed in Raqa province, where US-backed forces are trying to oust IS jihadists from their bastion Raqa city.
He told AFP that the new deaths brought the overall civilian toll from the coalition's campaign to 1,953, including 456 children and 333 women.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/472-civil...103024663.html
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Old Today, 06:44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bwaha View Post
Guess we know where a keyhole is...

The US says it has identified "potential preparations" for another chemical attack in Syria, and issued a stark warning to the Syrian government.
The White House said the activities were similar to those made before a suspected chemical attack in April.
Dozens died in that attack and prompted President Donald Trump to order a strike against a Syrian air base.
The US statement warned President Bashar al-Assad of "a heavy price" if another strike occurred.
It said "another chemical weapons attack by the Assad regime" was likely to result "in the mass murder of civilians".
The statement added: "As we have previously stated, the United States is in Syria to eliminate the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. If, however, Mr Assad conducts another mass murder attack using chemical weapons, he and his military will pay a heavy price."

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40413563
More Trump administration confusion
Quote:
Five US defense officials reached by BuzzFeed News said they did not know where the potential chemical attack would come from, including one US Central Command official who had "no idea" about its origin. The officials said they were unaware the White House was planning to release its statement; usually such statements are coordinated across the national security agencies and departments before they are released.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/claudiakoer...Rj#.kvN00nJ0p3
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Old Today, 08:58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skoblin View Post
Quote:
U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told his Turkish counterpart that weapons provided to the Kurdish YPG militia in Syria would be taken back once Islamic State was defeated, Turkish defence ministry sources said on Thursday.
In a letter to Turkey's Defence Minister Fikri Isik, Mattis said the United States had informed Turkey about the weapons it had given the YPG and that it would provide monthly lists of the arms supplied, the sources said in a statement.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mid...KBN19D10P?il=0

And the Kurds will meekly comply and hand everything back...
If I were the Kurds, I wouldn't hand anything back. Why should they? And how would this be enforced?
US policy changes again.
Quote:
U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said Tuesday that America will continue to provide weapons to Syrian Kurdish fighters after the battle to oust Islamic State militants from Raqqa, Syria, is over.Describing American reassurances to Turkey that the U.S. will take back weapons given to the Syrian Kurds after the IS fight, Mattis said it depends on when or where the next mission is. And he also sounded a cautionary tone when asked if all the weapons would be returned. "We'll do what we can," he told reporters traveling with him to Germany.
http://time.com/4834435/james-mattis...kurds-weapons/
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