UKIP vote to lead to Labour victory?

[copenhagen]

Originally Posted by billscottmorri

According to HMG ( https://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/psf_statistics.htm) the cash value of public expenditure has never fallen within the last genration at least.

If the second Thatcher government failed to rein in public spending then I would be bloody amazed if anyone else ever manages to do so. I would suggest that given this information it is practically impossible to cut public spending in the UK unless anyone has a plan?

The only plan would be to re-examine what the role of government ought to be....

Thats like Turkey's voting for Christmas as it would require politicians and civil servants to look in to it and its their jobs that would be on the line....

[Hop]

If the second Thatcher government failed to rein in public spending then I would be bloody amazed if anyone else ever manages to do so.

In real terms Thatcher cut spending by about 7% over 4 years. Labour actually cut slightly deeper over a shorter period in the mid to late 70s.

I would suggest that given this information it is practically impossible to cut public spending in the UK unless anyone has a plan?

I think the experience of the 70s Labour government points at what will cause significant cuts in UK government spending: when the government simply can't borrow any more money to put off the inevitable. We are pretty close to that position now.

It's a mistake to think there are any other choices available. We have too much debt. Governments have to reduce debt, and they aren't going to do that by borrowing more money, no matter what Balls has to say.

[billscottmorri]

Looking at the Thatcher years it seems virtually impossible that any current leaders could or would make the type of cuts that will make a major impact in the level of debt, especially when these cuts will probably reduce growth.

If Thatcher could only manage 7% over four years is it likely that anyone else would do more?

[Hop]

Thatcher cut 7% in real cash terms, it was more than 11% of GDP, close to the amount we need to cut over the coming decade.

No government wants to make such cuts. They don't have a choice. Ed Balls likes to make the most of opposition and claim if only we borrowed more the debt would somehow go down, but Labour's last chancellor, Alistair Darling, was clear:

Alistair Darling admitted tonight that Labour's planned cuts in public spending will be "deeper and tougher" than Margaret Thatcher's in the 1980s, as the country's leading experts on tax and spending warned that Britain faces "two parliaments of pain" to repair the black hole in the state's finances.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies said hefty tax rises and Whitehall spending cuts of 25% were in prospect during the six-year squeeze lasting until 2017 that would follow the chancellor's "treading water" budget yesterday.

Asked by the BBC tonight how his plans compared with Thatcher's attempts to slim the size of the state, Darling replied: "They will be deeper and tougher – where we make the precise comparison I think is secondary to an acknowledgement that these reductions will be tough."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...garet-thatcher

That was in March 2010, when oil was $80 a barrel (it went to $125 just over a year later) and the IMF was predicting strong growth for the global economy. Things have got worse since then.

[Tealo]

There's really only one major thing any government can significant cut apart from military procurement (Trident) and that's to abolish Tax Credits which makes almost everyone with children who are working to be on 'Benefits'
Which the Tories won't dare do especially after the uproar from the middleclass when it was capped.

The truth is the UK can't afford it and as the least beneficial social benefit and one of the most costly should be scrapped. With some of the money saved going to say providing decent free school dinners. If comes to a choice and I believe it has a long time ago to cutting the NHS/Education/Disability budgets and keeping Tax Credits then this huge 'Benefit Payment/TC' should go along with the huge bureaucracy which supports it.
Unfortunately no political party has the balls to do it.

[Listy]

Mad idea I know.
Join the EFTA and leave the EU, that should save £12Bn per year which we can use, say 10 bn as debt repayments, and £2Bn for funding growth (as examples, final figures can be altered). Which will also screw over UKIP, which sort of was the original thread

Equally let Scottish independence go through. That should lower the debt, in several ways.

[billscottmorri]

I would imagine that tough times call for tough measures. Leaving the EU, breaking up the UK to let Scotland go (even though it would cost most of the still considerable oil revenue), trully reforming welfare, scrapping the UK nukes and cutting every penny out of public spending might be the way.

Best get the cops on side though as there will be bit of blood in the streets making that happen.

[Hop]

There's no need for apocalyptic solutions. If you look at a graph of UK government spending it's clear that in 2000 the government began increasing spending at a rate we've never seen before in peace time. If spending had increased at the same rate as it had in the 70s, 80s and 90s the government would now be spending about £150 billion less every year, which would put us in surplus.

In fact, we'd now have a sovereign wealth fund like Norway's, rather than the largest debt we've ever built up in peace time.

A return to sanity doesn't involve scrapping things government has always done, it involves getting rid of the excesses of the last government. That's already underway, with freezes and low increases on public sector wages and benefits, a large reduction in the state payroll etc.

[Scupio]

I agree with Hop. The spending has gone exponential. There is so much fat around that it should be possible to cut Government spending a lot more that under Thatcher without affecting the things that Governments should do.

The other side of the coin is getting business moving - ditching the artificial life support of disastrously low interest rates which have only led to zombie companies crowding out decent, expanding businesses. And then ofr course the red-tape, H&S, maternity, inability to sack etc etc.

I don't expect anything to change until we descend as low as we were before Margaret gave everyone a kick up the backxxx.

[Surrey]

What the Conservatives need is for the Lib Dems to perk up. That would split the socialist vote.

[Selous]

But Lib Dems are not (or should not) be socialist, surely?

[billscottmorri]

Pretty hard to see the Cleggies bouncing back before the next vote. I am in England at the moment and the press here seems to treat them as a joke now. Given how badly their voters seem to feel about how they have performed in power I would imagine they are in for a thorough spanking next time round.

Cameron is looking very weak after this fiasco over Mitchell and Europe is bound to cause ructions within the Tories. Worth 50quid on a Labour victory at the moment.

[Listy]

Originally Posted by Scupio

H&S,

As someone trying to make a very well paid living from that field, do tell. Why is Health and Safety killing business?

[Gooner]

Originally Posted by billscottmorri

Cameron is looking very weak after this fiasco over Mitchell

What after Police lied about what Mitchell said and then the Met commissioner tried to brush it under the carpet?

Bad sign when even the police don't like the Tories though

[Gooner]

Originally Posted by Tealo

There's really only one major thing any government can significant cut apart from military procurement (Trident) and that's to abolish Tax Credits which makes almost everyone with children who are working to be on 'Benefits'
Which the Tories won't dare do especially after the uproar from the middleclass when it was capped.

The truth is the UK can't afford it and as the least beneficial social benefit and one of the most costly should be scrapped. With some of the money saved going to say providing decent free school dinners. If comes to a choice and I believe it has a long time ago to cutting the NHS/Education/Disability budgets and keeping Tax Credits then this huge 'Benefit Payment/TC' should go along with the huge bureaucracy which supports it.
Unfortunately no political party has the balls to do it.

No wonder the country is going bankrupt if even the middle classes need benefits.

This really is a no-brainer for the Tories though. Scrap tax credits return 90% of the money, or even all of it, in tax cuts (bring back the 10% band?), the savings from administration and fraud will still amount to £ billions saved for the exchequer.

The more self reliant people feel the more likely they are to vote Tory, the more dependent on the state people feel the more likely they are to vote Labour.