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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Historical Events & Eras > Warfare by Other Means

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Warfare by Other Means Economics, demographics, cultural, technological, and other factors that have affected the course of history.

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  #1  
Old 27 Feb 18, 13:36
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Emerging AI Risks Paints a Grim Future

New Report on Emerging AI Risks Paints a Grim Future

EXCERPT:
A new report authored by over two-dozen experts on the implications of emerging technologies is sounding the alarm bells on the ways artificial intelligence could enable new forms of cybercrime, physical attacks, and political disruption over the next five to ten years.

The 100-page report, titled “The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation,” boasts 26 experts from 14 different institutions and organizations, including Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute, Cambridge University’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, Elon Musk’s OpenAI, and the Electronic Frontier Foundation. The report builds upon a two-day workshop held at Oxford University back in February of last year. In the report, the authors detail some of the ways AI could make things generally unpleasant in the next few years, focusing on three security domains of note—the digital, physical, and political arenas—and how the malicious use of AI could upset each of these.

“It is often the case that AI systems don’t merely reach human levels of performance but significantly surpass it,” said Miles Brundage, a Research Fellow at Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute and a co-author of the report, in a statement. “It is troubling, but necessary, to consider the implications of superhuman hacking, surveillance, persuasion, and physical target identification, as well as AI capabilities that are subhuman but nevertheless much more scalable than human labour.”

Indeed, the big takeaway of the report is that AI is now on the cusp of being a tremendously negative disruptive force as rival states, criminals, and terrorists use the scale and efficiency of AI to launch finely-targeted and highly efficient attacks.

“As AI capabilities become more powerful and widespread, we expect the growing use of AI systems to lead to the expansion of existing threats, the introduction of new threats, and a change to the typical character of threats,” write the authors in the new report.

They warn that the cost of attacks will be lowered owing to the scalable use of AI and the offloading of tasks typically performed by humans. Similarly, new threats may emerge through the use of systems that will complete tasks normally too impractical or onerous for humans.
“We believe there is reason to expect attacks enabled by the growing use of AI to be especially effective, finely targeted, difficult to attribute, and likely to exploit vulnerabilities in AI systems,” they write.

In terms of specifics, the authors warn of cyber attacks involving automated hacking, spear phishing, speech synthesis to impersonate targets, and “data poisoning.” The advent of drones and semi- and fully-autonomous systems introduces an entirely new class of risks; the nightmarish scenarios include the deliberate crashing of multiple self-driving vehicles, coordinated attacks using thousands of micro-drones, converting commercial drones into face-recognizing assassins, and holding critical infrastructures for ransom. Politically, AI could be used to sway popular opinion, create highly targeted propaganda, and spread fake—but perhaps highly believable—posts and videos. AI will enable better surveillance technologies, both in public and private spaces.
...
https://gizmodo.com/new-report-on-ai...ure-1823191087

This thread could go in the Science sub-forum, but the focus here is on the hostile use/application of AI.
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  #2  
Old 01 Mar 18, 16:00
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It's going to make Brave New World look like a Disney movie.

A properly developed AI would exactly mimic human online behavior making it nearly impossible to keep out the spambots. On a site as small as ACG, we could still kill them after the fact. OTOH if you depend a website for your business or livelihood, you could be crippled by anyone who can afford to buy or rent the AI. That could include anyone from a malicious nation-state down to your vindictive Ex'.

My latest random idea, there could be a new market for high-security, human only businesses. Off-line, off-grid, secure facilities for sensitive businesses and services. For those who can afford them of course.
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Old 11 Mar 18, 16:34
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Old 13 Mar 18, 07:05
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GCoyote View Post
My latest random idea, there could be a new market for high-security, human only businesses. Off-line, off-grid, secure facilities for sensitive businesses and services. For those who can afford them of course.
That's the way terrorist networks work, I mean terrorist networks that survive. The downside is that communication is s-l-o-w. You have to have couriers going around physically with the data to be communicated. Even if they only have to go through a door (from the non-linked part of the compound to the comms center, as opposed to couriers on donkeys, motorcycles, then cars, then aircraft moving all around the world), that' still slow if they have to copy gigas of data by hand. If they don't copy by hand, then hostile code can creep into the secure part of the compound.
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Old 17 Mar 18, 14:58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Michele View Post
That's the way terrorist networks work, I mean terrorist networks that survive. The downside is that communication is s-l-o-w. You have to have couriers going around physically with the data to be communicated. Even if they only have to go through a door (from the non-linked part of the compound to the comms center, as opposed to couriers on donkeys, motorcycles, then cars, then aircraft moving all around the world), that' still slow if they have to copy gigas of data by hand. If they don't copy by hand, then hostile code can creep into the secure part of the compound.
There's all sorts of ways around being detected. For example the 9/11 bunch used AOL at the time. They all had access to one account. What they'd do is write an e-mail and save it, not send it. So, it stayed within the account. Any of the ring could log into that account and then access the saved e-mail, read and reply to it the same way. But, the e-mail never left the primary node it was loaded to so the various intelligence and spy agencies never saw it because it wasn't transmitted anywhere on the net. They weren't looking within individual accounts, but rather looking between individual accounts.

As for reasonable security... Many of these groups operate a lot of stand alone computers. It's relatively easy to send a thumb drive by overnight delivery now. They're so small and portable, they'd be hard to run down. Even if you get one with some sort of virus you infect the one computer and it isn't on line.
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Old 18 Mar 18, 01:39
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Before we all start quaking with fear in case AI robots take over, let's remember AI can still be pretty dumb.
For example the military has poured millions into developing air-to-air missiles over the past 50 years, but missiles like the Sidewinder and AMRAAM can still be fooled if the target plane pops flares and chaff, because the missiles tiny brain can't even tell the difference between an aircraft and simple fireworks and tinfoil strips..
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Old 19 Mar 18, 13:48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
There's all sorts of ways around being detected. For example the 9/11 bunch used AOL at the time. They all had access to one account. What they'd do is write an e-mail and save it, not send it. So, it stayed within the account. Any of the ring could log into that account and then access the saved e-mail, read and reply to it the same way. But, the e-mail never left the primary node it was loaded to so the various intelligence and spy agencies never saw it because it wasn't transmitted anywhere on the net. They weren't looking within individual accounts, but rather looking between individual accounts.
That's still not offline computers.

Quote:
As for reasonable security... Many of these groups operate a lot of stand alone computers. It's relatively easy to send a thumb drive by overnight delivery now.
That depends from where to where.

Quote:
Even if you get one with some sort of virus you infect the one computer and it isn't on line.
Yes, so, assuming you have carried no virus in, you still have the data on one computer. That may be enough for many purposes, and for others it may not.
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