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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Military/History Related Hobbies > Alternate Timelines

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Alternate Timelines The plausible "what if's" of military history.

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  #151  
Old 26 Jan 18, 14:40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BF69 View Post
If the Italians & Germans do somehow manage to take the Suez canal the Eastern Med will become a backwater. Britain will relocate its forces to Aden & the Persian Gulf and some troops in Kenya. When the Americans arrive in force they will make sure the oil is secure & then may choose to avoid Nth Africa & Southern Europe entirely.
The importance of the oil of the ME was very small in WWII and, the Germans capturing the canal does not mean that the oil would be in danger .
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  #152  
Old 26 Jan 18, 15:14
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I think ME Oil was more important than that. There were also refineries to make gasoline. Why ship around Africa to Egypt from the US if you can pipe it to Palestine or Syria? When the Japanese took the Dutch East Indies, the Mid East became more important.

The British bought oil from a number of countries and they seem to have preferred that tactic. If they would have had to depend on just Trinidad they would have been in trouble.

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  #153  
Old 28 Jan 18, 01:10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carl Schwamberg View Post
Interesting premise in the OP. A decade or so ago I took a look at designing a game for this subject. The goal would be for the Italian player to place himself in a better position for negotiated peace by mid 1943. At the time I did not see a game leading to a Italian victory as 'realistic'.
1943?!
I can't think of any way to win for Italy in a war that lasts that long. 1940, yes, 1941... a long shot. After that, I'd just forget it.

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Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
...

The only way around that is they hold out long enough to allow Britain to be defeated in Egypt and their colonies in East Africa now have a direct sea, land, and air route between them and Italy. Even then, the sheer scale of the area they occupy will make a victory unlikely.
I wonder if the UK would stop the war before it got that far.
The Germans just wanted terms, and not very outrageous ones. Churchill wasn't about to give in and just walk away, but if some of the most valuable territory in the Empire was being over-run and a permanent change in the shape of things became possible, maybe he would have made a deal.

And losing enough land to make that linkup happen could be the straw that breaks the Camel's back.
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  #154  
Old 28 Jan 18, 02:39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Exorcist View Post
1943?!
I can't think of any way to win for Italy in a war that lasts that long. 1940, yes, 1941... a long shot. After that, I'd just forget it.
There is one way - stay neutral and then jump in on the Allied side when Germany starts losing.



Quote:
I wonder if the UK would stop the war before it got that far.
The Germans just wanted terms, and not very outrageous ones. Churchill wasn't about to give in and just walk away, but if some of the most valuable territory in the Empire was being over-run and a permanent change in the shape of things became possible, maybe he would have made a deal.

And losing enough land to make that linkup happen could be the straw that breaks the Camel's back.
Egypt wasn't really part of the Empire in 1940. Britain had great influence, but Egypt was sufficiently independent to get Britain to withdraw troops (except for the canal zone) in 1936. The real value of Egypt was the Suez Canal, which Britain did control. Unless coming to terms gets that back then fighting on makes more sense.

Losing the Suez Canal would probably mean losing control of Palestine/Transjordan & other parts of the Med, but those are either protectorates or not that valuable. The Persian Gulf is much harder to threaten and if worst comes to worst the Russians & Americans won't allow it. The important parts of the Empire are intact. As long as Britain has US support, and especially with the US in the war in late 1941, there is little incentive to come to terms unless it means the return of territory I don't think Mussolini is going to give up.

Losing Malaya Singapore in early 1942 was a huge blow to Britain. Those colonies were more valuable than Sudan or influence in Egypt. Britain hung in there.
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