Was ACG's 2005 prediction about a revanchivist Russia on target?
In our March 2005 Armchair General article 'Dangerous New World,' we listed as one of our 'Worst-Case Scenarios' the danger that a revanchist Russia might lead to Cold War-like renewed confrontation with the U. S. At the time, our Editor in Chief Jerry Morelock explained including this 'worst case scenario' by writing:
Revanchist Russia reverts to active ‘enemy’ status
Why You Should Care: Russia remains desperate to be considered by the nations of the world as still being a superpower, despite the continuing political and economic problems plaguing it today. Although the economic chaos that accompanied its virtual overnight rejection of its 70-plus years of Soviet-style communism has improved somewhat, Russia and the successor states of the U.S.S.R. are still led by former communist-era bosses. Meaningful political reforms that provide the solid foundation for true democracy remains lacking. Meanwhile, Russia continues to possess all the military trappings of a superpower—a huge nuclear arsenal, ballistic missile submarines, sophisticated aircraft and other weaponry—only kept in check by political leadership that is still struggling to come to grips with what true democracy is all about. At the same time, the bitter legacy of decades of Soviet empire-building and repression has led to attempts by disaffected minorities—Chechens for example--to go their own way and form break-away nations of their own. The resulting violence and terrorism have not only prompted strong military reactions from Russia, they have elicited reactions among the general population that, perhaps, democracy is not worth the price. If too many Russians decide that they would rather have the security provided by iron-handed leadership using police-state methods than the seeming chaos of their new-found democracy, the future course of a militarily-powerful, revanchist Russia could bring that nation into conflict with the United States once again.
Are these fears being justified, given the Russia-Georgia conflict and the ongoing fall out from it? Or do they miss the mark?"