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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > East Asia and the Pacific > North Korea

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North Korea The nuclear crisis in North Korea, including testing, sabre-rattling, sanctions, etc.

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  #46  
Old 14 Aug 17, 06:17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolfe Tone View Post
If the US attacks North Korea then to be meaningful it would require months of preparation and moving substantially more Forces in Theatre

No sign that any such move is underway

Of course all bets are off if Kimmy attacks Guam - accidently on purpose like

Then he will be one sorry little man....
Lil' Kim will only attack Guam if he can be sure that all the missiles misfire and flow in a completely another direction.
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  #47  
Old 21 Aug 17, 18:49
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Originally Posted by Escape2Victory View Post
Given the US commitment to Europe, I think NATO would have to help if the US was attacked and requested NATO assistance. What help could be given in that theatre in rapid response is another matter.
Agreed. The bulk of NATO's ability to move forces outside of Europe lies with the US TRANSCOM https://www.ustranscom.mil

We should assume their priority would be to moving key US assets into theater and supporting an opening strategic air offensive. Bringing in willing NATO partners would come last. While NATO strike aircraft would certainly be capable of participating, how many NATO units have ever even conducted an exercise in the theater?

Even flying from US bases like Anderson, space limitations would still probably constrain meaningful NATO numbers.

China could play another critical role here however. One of the chief problems for US targeters is the DPRK's extensive underground facilities (UGF). Obviously we want to target operational weapons sites first and preferably by surprise. I'm willing to bet that Beijing has a lot of good intel on which UGFs are really holding ready to fire missiles and WMDs and which can left for mopping up operations.

Convince the Chinese that Kim is about to launch and they might be willing to share the needed info to make the war as short as possible.
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  #48  
Old 21 Aug 17, 19:34
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Everyone needs to remember one thing. China has vastly different goals than the US and the west. Simply put they will NOT allow a US allied unified Korea on their boarder. Does not matter if NK attacks first. They will move across the boarder and sweep up as much of NK as they can if war comes and NK state losing territory or looks to being on the verge of collapse.
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Old 21 Aug 17, 21:01
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On the Korean Peninsula, Watch Tangible Movement Not Rhetoric

A relevant interview.

Quote:
The Cipher Briefs Kaitlin Lavinder spoke with Admiral Jonathan Greenert, former Chief of Naval Operations for the U.S. Navy who served for 15 years in the Asia-Pacific, including as Commander of U.S. Seventh (Asia-Pacific) Fleet. They discussed the U.S.-South Korea exercises and current U.S. relations with North Korea and China.
https://www.thecipherbrief.com/artic...t-not-rhetoric
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  #50  
Old 22 Aug 17, 19:26
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Combat Engineer, if the US is counting on the alliance to survive Korean reunification, they are blind. Once Korea is reunified, we will be shown the door. Simply put, we will have outlived our usefulness in Korea and the Koreans will be moving on.
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  #51  
Old 05 Sep 17, 00:36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GCoyote View Post
Agreed. The bulk of NATO's ability to move forces outside of Europe lies with the US TRANSCOM https://www.ustranscom.mil

We should assume their priority would be to moving key US assets into theater and supporting an opening strategic air offensive. Bringing in willing NATO partners would come last. While NATO strike aircraft would certainly be capable of participating, how many NATO units have ever even conducted an exercise in the theater?

Even flying from US bases like Anderson, space limitations would still probably constrain meaningful NATO numbers.

China could play another critical role here however. One of the chief problems for US targeters is the DPRK's extensive underground facilities (UGF). Obviously we want to target operational weapons sites first and preferably by surprise. I'm willing to bet that Beijing has a lot of good intel on which UGFs are really holding ready to fire missiles and WMDs and which can left for mopping up operations.

Convince the Chinese that Kim is about to launch and they might be willing to share the needed info to make the war as short as possible.
Excellent point, "GCoyote", about China helping the US with intel on N. Korea's crucial strategic strong-points. Not only their underground facilities, but their land- based ones, as well as their sea-based threats.

But I believe that China would only divulge such intel if the US agreed to invade the hermit kingdom from the south, while China invaded from the north. They would agree to 'meet' in the middle, after which the US would agree to leave the region in a few years, so as not to antagonize China with their presence on the Chinese border.
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  #52  
Old 01 Oct 17, 21:56
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Exclamation Best article on what war with North Korea might look like!

Best article on what a war with North Korea might look like, from

"The National Interest; A Foreign Policy Experts' Roundtable":


http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the...2422?page=show

Highlights:

"Option Two

U.S. intelligence officials receive evidence that North Korea has successfully miniaturized a nuclear weapon and married it to an ICBM capable of reaching Los Angeles. All diplomatic avenues having been exhausted, President Trump approves the largest military air campaign in modern history. Again, not all the consequences outlined here will eventuate, but given the recommendation for war, a special responsibility exists in ensuring that all credible risks are laid bare.

Consequences

1. War
(obviously)

North Korea is hit by a massive cyber-attack that disables communications, shuts down the power grid, and cripples command and control chains. Minutes later the sky lights up with massive ordinance as MOABs detonate over North Korean nuclear facilities and launch platforms. Thousands of North Korean artillery pieces are similarly struck, along with all palatial compounds. By the time the attack is generally known in Pyongyang, North Koreas forces have already been seriously degraded. Eventually, low-level commanders acting under their own initiative commence an un-coordinated retaliatory action primarily targeted at Seoul. The subsequent artillery barrage kills some 30,000 people before the guns are found and destroyed. After these initial setbacks, North Korea is given some time to re-group as the American air campaign focuses obsessively on suspected nuclear sites. 36 hours later North Korea retaliates with a massive ballistic missile bombardment of Japan, killing thousands. Meanwhile, North Korean submarines attack American surface ships, somewhat complicating carrier-based sorties over the peninsula. Using hitherto undetected tunnels, thousands of North Korean troops appear south of the DMZ. They are pushed back with heavy losses on both sides, as huge numbers of marines arrive in preparation for an invasion of the North.

2. Nuclear escalation

Despite every effort, North Korea manages to hit Japan with two nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles in the closing stages of the conflict, killing close to 300,000 civilians. The U.S. responds with low-yield nuclear bunker-busters; however, this is largely tokenistic as North Korea is already lost. This attack shatters world markets already rattled by the conflict, and panic spreads about possibilities of loose nukes being smuggled out as the regime collapses. Recriminations occur in the aftermath over who allowed this to happen and what more should have been done to prevent it. Combined with the large numbers of combat casualties, questions over whether the war was worthwhile or necessary precipitates political crises in multiple capitals."
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  #53  
Old 02 Oct 17, 03:59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BELGRAVE View Post
Okay ,but I can't see how a dancing banana can " entice vigorous debate", at least ,in the manner that you wish to encourage. There's nothing whatever lighthearted about a serious contemplation of a possible war.
I agree with your pov on the banana. Silly!
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  #54  
Old 02 Oct 17, 08:46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EastFront View Post
Please state what you think a war with North Korea against the U.S. (and by necessity its partner South Korea) would look like..
In this day and age putting boots on the ground is oldfashioned except as a last resort, and I share the late Schwarzkopf's view-
"I am quite confident that in the foreseeable future armed conflict will not take the form of huge land armies facing each other across extended battle lines, as they did in World War I and World War II or, for that matter, as they would have if NATO had faced the Warsaw Pact on the field of battle."
- General H. Norman Schwarzkopf

http://www.military-quotes.com/Schwarzkopf.htm

So if I was Trump I'd simply take out Kim's nuke-producing infrastructure with a precision conventional cruise missile/drone blitz starting with his ICBM launch sites because without his nukes Kim is just a harmless tub of hot air.
It's a target-rich environment out there (below)..

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  #55  
Old 02 Oct 17, 10:33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poor Old Spike View Post
In this day and age putting boots on the ground is oldfashioned except as a last resort, and I share the late Schwarzkopf's view-
"I am quite confident that in the foreseeable future armed conflict will not take the form of huge land armies facing each other across extended battle lines, as they did in World War I and World War II or, for that matter, as they would have if NATO had faced the Warsaw Pact on the field of battle."
- General H. Norman Schwarzkopf

http://www.military-quotes.com/Schwarzkopf.htm

So if I was Trump I'd simply take out Kim's nuke-producing infrastructure with a precision conventional cruise missile/drone blitz starting with his ICBM launch sites because without his nukes Kim is just a harmless tub of hot air.
It's a target-rich environment out there (below)..
Do you have an up to date Small Pox vaccination?
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Old 05 Oct 17, 02:35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poor Old Spike View Post
In this day and age putting boots on the ground is oldfashioned except as a last resort, and I share the late Schwarzkopf's view-
"I am quite confident that in the foreseeable future armed conflict will not take the form of huge land armies facing each other across extended battle lines, as they did in World War I and World War II or, for that matter, as they would have if NATO had faced the Warsaw Pact on the field of battle."
- General H. Norman Schwarzkopf

http://www.military-quotes.com/Schwarzkopf.htm

So if I was Trump I'd simply take out Kim's nuke-producing infrastructure with a precision conventional cruise missile/drone blitz starting with his ICBM launch sites because without his nukes Kim is just a harmless tub of hot air.
It's a target-rich environment out there (below)..

Good strategy. However, while the US is taking out No. Korea's ICBM sites, the North will be invading South Korea, and possibly occupying it.This would force the US to get bogged down in yet another potentially very costly and long-term war.

I still say the best strategy is for the US to have a 'secret' pact with China:

The US & South Korea will invade from the south, and China will invade from the North. They will meet in the middle and divvy up the country. Then, with the threat of North Korea eliminated, the US will leave the region, leaving both China and South Korea as the area's top bananas.

Last edited by EastFront; 05 Oct 17 at 02:47..
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Old 05 Oct 17, 09:22
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Old 05 Oct 17, 11:01
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Poor Old Spike quote- "..if I was Trump I'd simply take out Kim's nuke-producing infrastructure with a precision conventional cruise missile/drone blitz starting with his ICBM launch sites because without his nukes Kim is just a harmless tub of hot air"
-------------------------------------------------
Quote:
Originally Posted by EastFront View Post
Good strategy. However, while the US is taking out No. Korea's ICBM sites, the North will be invading South Korea, and possibly occupying it.This would force the US to get bogged down in yet another potentially very costly and long-term war...
Don Trump strikes me as the kind of President who wouldn't get bogged down in anything, so when he says "fire and fury" I'm inclined to believe him..

Last edited by Poor Old Spike; 05 Oct 17 at 11:50..
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  #59  
Old 05 Oct 17, 15:25
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North Korea Could Kill Over 3 Million in Nuclear Strike

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...S5t?li=BBnbcA1

3 million is a lot of people, needless to say. But the article didn't mention the environmental impact that would result from those detonations, the results of which would effect the entire planet for years/decades.

I don't see fat boy going down without a fight. If we attack him, or he thinks we are going to attack him, we will attack back/strike first.
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Old 09 Oct 17, 05:22
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The problem the US faces with North Korea is not the risk of China taking action, not the risk of NK artillery hitting Seoul and certainly not NK launching nukes. It's internal. The political climate in the US and the west in general is polarised with the left ready to crucify any and all action taken against NK. Essentially an openly hostile left leaning media in the US is by far the greatest problem facing the Trump administration.

To properly neutralise NK the US world have to, in the words of Trump, unleash fire and fury like the world hasn't seen. The US military was built to counter this scenario and even in its current war weary state would have very few problems carrying out the attack. It's like facing cold war Soviet Union buy 1/20th of the size population wise and 1/100th the size kand mass wise.

In an opening barrage NK would have it's air defences deleted, its lights switched off, it's artillery units facing Seoul destroyed and its nuclear industry ended. Following those first critical strikes the NK state would be strategically dismantled and rendered useless. No need for boots on the ground just removing the NK's ability to function

There would be collateral damage and many NK citizens would be killed. This will send the media into a frenzy which is where the biggest single hurdle for US action against NK.

China isn't going to risk it's regime for NK. The Chinese leadership will not trade economic stability and growth for NK no matter how far you stretch the imagination. They're are not ideologically driven war mongers in the slightest ready to risk it all for the cause. Basically they've discovered wealth and they're hooked. If those economic fires go out then China disintegrates.

The risk of artillery hitting Seoul is massively over inflated. The idea that NK has maintained artillery within range of Seoul whilst keeping their locations a secret is silly. The simple fact is that the locations are known and targeted. Sure, a few sites will be hit that don't have guns positioned but every site that is occupied by guns will be taken out.

Same with the nuclear industry.

The problem facing the opening strike is not which targets are bit but which targets are hit that didn't need to be.

Well that's my story and I'm sticking to it.
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