HistoryNet.com RSS
ArmchairGeneral.com RSS

HistoryNet.com Articles
America's Civil War
American History
Aviation History
Civil War Times
MHQ
Military History
Vietnam
Wild West
World War II

ACG Online
ACG Magazine
Stuff We Like
War College
History News
Tactics 101
Carlo D'Este
Books

ACG Gaming
Boardgames
PC Game Reviews

ACG Network
Contact Us
Our Newsletter
Meet Our Staff
Advertise With Us

Sites We Support
HistoryNet.com
StreamHistory.com
Once A Marine
The Art of Battle
Game Squad
Mil. History Podcast
Russian Army - WW2
Achtung Panzer!
Mil History Online

Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > Europe

Notices and Announcements

Europe Issues of modern Europe.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #46  
Old 07 Sep 17, 11:00
Johan Banér's Avatar
Johan Banér Johan Banér is offline
General of the Forums
Sweden
5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Uppsala
Posts: 6,211
Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700]
Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poor Old Spike View Post
Yes, any countries nuclear fireworks might well never be used, but an enemy can never be absolutely sure that they won't be used, therein lies the deterrence factor because it maintains the uncertainty and keeps the enemy guessing..
You also can't 100% convince anyone you will actually fight, if first-strike nuclear is your go-to defensive option. And if you don't have the conventional stuff you will be striking first, or not at all. Nuclear is a "digital" on/off like that. Part of the usefulness of conventional is that it's analog, you can dial it up or down as necessity dictates, but everyone can rely on you actually using it if push comes to shove. With nuclear, that's always going to be a trickier proposition.

You need the combination of the deterrence that can be relied on to be always 100% assured, and the kind you can never be quite sure about. But if you have to chose (alternative costs), then the former is far more useful than the latter, which isn't very useful at all without the former. It just can't quite make up for it.
Reply With Quote
  #47  
Old 07 Sep 17, 11:09
Johan Banér's Avatar
Johan Banér Johan Banér is offline
General of the Forums
Sweden
5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Uppsala
Posts: 6,211
Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700]
Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gooner View Post
The situations are not comparable. North Korea was under no threat before they started developing nukes. Now they are.
Before North Korea could rely on the PRC as a last ditch deterrence. Now they might not.
That doesn't actually matter.

What you're saying is that the Norks are laboring on this using a set of false premises. (Except they're still technically at war, a fact they cultivate carefully here.) The Israelis do not. I'm inclined to agree.

But that doesn't matter, since the reasons behind why you get nukes and how you might use them is the same whether you're analysis proceeds from false or correct premises. That makes no difference for how the reasoning regarding nuclear deterrence works. It ends up the same.
Reply With Quote
  #48  
Old 07 Sep 17, 11:55
Gooner's Avatar
Gooner Gooner is offline
General of the Forums
England
ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: London
Posts: 14,033
Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400]
Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johan Banér View Post
That doesn't actually matter.
You are making the assumption that nothing much will change. It well might.
Reply With Quote
  #49  
Old 07 Sep 17, 12:54
Johan Banér's Avatar
Johan Banér Johan Banér is offline
General of the Forums
Sweden
5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Uppsala
Posts: 6,211
Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700]
Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gooner View Post
You are making the assumption that nothing much will change. It well might.
All kinds of things might change.

The logical development of how nuclear deterrence works relative to how conventional military deterrence works is unlikely to be one of them.

But if this somehow satisfies you that on some weird level of your choosing I'm wrong, then you're welcome to it.
Reply With Quote
  #50  
Old 07 Sep 17, 15:51
Poor Old Spike's Avatar
Poor Old Spike Poor Old Spike is offline
Lieutenant Colonel
UK
ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: England
Posts: 1,307
Poor Old Spike has demonstrated strength of character [100] Poor Old Spike has demonstrated strength of character [100] Poor Old Spike has demonstrated strength of character [100] Poor Old Spike has demonstrated strength of character [100] Poor Old Spike has demonstrated strength of character [100] Poor Old Spike has demonstrated strength of character [100] Poor Old Spike has demonstrated strength of character [100] Poor Old Spike has demonstrated strength of character [100]
Incidentally, I think Trump is lacking when it comes to understanding the Oriental mindset, his Gen Mattis is supposed to be an expert on foreign cultures (see Wiki) so I'd have thought he'd have advised Trump better.
The Orientals are very big on "saving face" but Don is hitting Kim with insult after insult, so Kim is firing off rockets and doing nuke tests to save face.
Maybe Trump should have issued a statement long ago, something like-
"We respect the North Korean scientists under the strong leadership of Kim Jong-un for developing nuclear weapons, and we now hope he'll show the world that he's also a wise leader"..
Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links

  #51  
Old 07 Sep 17, 19:53
BELGRAVE's Avatar
BELGRAVE BELGRAVE is offline
General of the Forums
Australia
5 Year Service Ribbon Best Pin-Up Of World War II Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign 
Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
 
Real Name: PHILIP WHITEHOUSE
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: MELBOURNE
Posts: 5,958
BELGRAVE is simply cracking [600]
BELGRAVE is simply cracking [600] BELGRAVE is simply cracking [600] BELGRAVE is simply cracking [600] BELGRAVE is simply cracking [600] BELGRAVE is simply cracking [600] BELGRAVE is simply cracking [600] BELGRAVE is simply cracking [600] BELGRAVE is simply cracking [600] BELGRAVE is simply cracking [600] BELGRAVE is simply cracking [600] BELGRAVE is simply cracking [600] BELGRAVE is simply cracking [600]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poor Old Spike View Post
Incidentally, I think Trump is lacking when it comes to understanding the Oriental mindset, his Gen Mattis is supposed to be an expert on foreign cultures (see Wiki) so I'd have thought he'd have advised Trump better.
The Orientals are very big on "saving face" but Don is hitting Kim with insult after insult, so Kim is firing off rockets and doing nuke tests to save face.
Maybe Trump should have issued a statement long ago, something like-
"We respect the North Korean scientists under the strong leadership of Kim Jong-un for developing nuclear weapons, and we now hope he'll show the world that he's also a wise leader"..
Yes, indeed. (+1)
__________________
"I dogmatise and am contradicted, and in this conflict of opinions and sentiments I find delight".
Samuel Johnson.
Reply With Quote
  #52  
Old 08 Sep 17, 04:57
Gooner's Avatar
Gooner Gooner is offline
General of the Forums
England
ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: London
Posts: 14,033
Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400]
Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johan Banér View Post
All kinds of things might change.

The logical development of how nuclear deterrence works relative to how conventional military deterrence works is unlikely to be one of them.
Really? Then how do you explain that the Norks nuclear program is acting like an accelerant not as a deterrent?
Reply With Quote
  #53  
Old 08 Sep 17, 05:04
Snowygerry's Avatar
Snowygerry Snowygerry is offline
General of the Forums
Belgium
5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Gent
Posts: 11,272
Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000]
Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000]
Without the ability to deal out anthropogenic earthquakes, foreign removal of the NK regime is just a matter a time, indeed, imho it would have happened already.

From the perspective of a leader that wants to remain in power at all cost - it's working perfectly well.
__________________
High The Admiral Snowy, Commander In Chief of the Naval Forces of The Phoenix Confederation.
Francis II, Holy Roman Emperor - The Napoleonic Wars Campaign.

Captain Atticus Finch - ACW Rainbow Co.
Reply With Quote
  #54  
Old 08 Sep 17, 05:36
Gooner's Avatar
Gooner Gooner is offline
General of the Forums
England
ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: London
Posts: 14,033
Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400]
Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowygerry View Post
Without the ability to deal out anthropogenic earthquakes, foreign removal of the NK regime is just a matter a time, indeed, imho it would have happened already.

From the perspective of a leader that wants to remain in power at all cost - it's working perfectly well.
Arse over tip.

If Kim Jong Un was happy to remain an averagely insane dictator of a repressed backward nation, backed by one of the worlds superpowers, everyone else would have been happy to leave him in peace.

By developing nukes and openly challenging the ROW he is massively reducing the ability to remain in power at all costs. Perhaps thats what he really wants - an end to it all.
Reply With Quote
  #55  
Old 08 Sep 17, 05:51
Snowygerry's Avatar
Snowygerry Snowygerry is offline
General of the Forums
Belgium
5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Gent
Posts: 11,272
Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000]
Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gooner View Post
Arse over tip.

If Kim Jong Un was happy to remain an averagely insane dictator of a repressed backward nation, backed by one of the worlds superpowers, everyone else would have been happy to leave him in peace.
I suspect his bombs are intended to keep the Chinese honest, as much as the US Americans.

Given half a chance they would probably have replaced him sometime ago.

Every time one of these rockets hits the sea, it says loud and clear,

"..this could be China.."

"Maybe Guam, but certainly China.."

Quote:
By developing nukes and openly challenging the ROW he is massively reducing the ability to remain in power at all costs. Perhaps thats what he really wants - an end to it all.
I doubt it - who's going send in the troops needed, with the risk of having an hydrogen bomb explode in the midst of his beautiful and expensive invasion force ?
__________________
High The Admiral Snowy, Commander In Chief of the Naval Forces of The Phoenix Confederation.
Francis II, Holy Roman Emperor - The Napoleonic Wars Campaign.

Captain Atticus Finch - ACW Rainbow Co.
Reply With Quote
  #56  
Old 08 Sep 17, 06:20
Gooner's Avatar
Gooner Gooner is offline
General of the Forums
England
ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: London
Posts: 14,033
Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400]
Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400] Gooner has a spectacular aura about [400]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowygerry View Post
I suspect his bombs are intended to keep the Chinese honest, as much as the US Americans.

Given half a chance they would probably have replaced him sometime ago.

Every time one of these rockets hits the sea, it says loud and clear,

"..this could be China.."

"Maybe Guam, but certainly China.."
China could end him anytime they wanted.

Quote:
I doubt it - who's going send in the troops needed, with the risk of having an hydrogen bomb explode in the midst of his beautiful and expensive invasion force ?
Invasion force?

Upping the ante on economic sanctions for a while, even if world trade gets hit. Which might be a bonus for the US.
Reply With Quote
  #57  
Old 08 Sep 17, 07:03
Johan Banér's Avatar
Johan Banér Johan Banér is offline
General of the Forums
Sweden
5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Uppsala
Posts: 6,211
Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700]
Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700] Johan Banér is a glorious beacon of light [700]
It's unlikely Kim's nukes are supposed to be purely defensive...

Primarily defensive, yes, but not purely. There is a very real risk Kim thinks he is setting the pieces up in such a fashion that he can be allowed to restart the hot war with South Korea, but without anyone daring to come to S.Korea's aid for fear of Kim's nukes. So they're still "insurance", it's just not entirely given what he hopes to insure himself against here...

If he can swing that (and defeat S.Korea, which even without direct US aid is no push-over) he might be minded to go to war and gloriously unite the Korean penninsula under his personal leadership.

It's then assumed neither China nor Russia will care enough to rein him in, while the US et al. are supposed to be so intimidated they drop their support of S.Korea and lets it take its chances alone.

The whole "Juche" ideology of autarky is pretty much designed to ensure the Kims won't have to worry about international sanctions, trade and the like. Good for warmaking, rubbish for bugger all else.

Last edited by Johan Banér; 08 Sep 17 at 08:09..
Reply With Quote
  #58  
Old 08 Sep 17, 08:22
Snowygerry's Avatar
Snowygerry Snowygerry is offline
General of the Forums
Belgium
5 Year Service Ribbon 
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Gent
Posts: 11,272
Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000]
Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000] Snowygerry has set a fine example for others to follow [1000]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gooner View Post
(...)
Upping the ante on economic sanctions for a while, even if world trade gets hit. Which might be a bonus for the US.
North Koreans have been starving for three or more generations now, it's Stockholm Syndrome applied to international politics.

What sort of economic sanctions do intend to implement on a population that eats dog meat and believes their dear leader to be the Yellow Power Ranger ?

Even if you nuke the place twice over, the last living North Korean will emerge from Vault Nine to resist you, shouting Kim Young Whatever rules...while firing every last shell in their inventory.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gooner View Post
China could end him anytime they wanted.
But what price are they prepared to pay for it ? A few cities close to the border turned to rubble ?

I'm fairly sure Kim is prepared to do exactly that.
__________________
High The Admiral Snowy, Commander In Chief of the Naval Forces of The Phoenix Confederation.
Francis II, Holy Roman Emperor - The Napoleonic Wars Campaign.

Captain Atticus Finch - ACW Rainbow Co.
Reply With Quote
  #59  
Old 21 Sep 17, 07:51
Half Pint John's Avatar
Half Pint John Half Pint John is offline
General of the Forums
United_States
Distinguished Service Award ACG Ten Year Service Award 5 Year Service Ribbon March Offensive 
Summer Campaign 100 Greatest Generals, 2008 Most Decisive Battle Campaign, 2008 Greatest Westerns Campaign 
Greatest Spy Movies Campaign Greatest Blunders Campaign Best Pin-Up Of World War II Most Significant/Influential Tank Campaign 
Most Significant/Influential Fighter Campaign Most Significant/Influential Multi-Role Aircraft C 
 
Real Name: John (NO LABELS)
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Stuttgart Germany
Posts: 47,102
Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+]  [+1]
Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+] Half Pint John has achieved enlightenment [1200+]
https://www.yahoo.com/news/royal-nav...002200242.html

The Royal Navy Faces a Frightening Future Without Anti-Ship Missiles
Britain could see years without one if it retires the Harpoon in the 2020s.

Put to nice new carriers, without aircraft.

What has become of once the pride of England and the UK?
__________________
"Ask not what your country can do for you"

Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power.

'half-baked, spurious nationalism'
Reply With Quote
Reply

Please bookmark this thread if you enjoyed it!


Thread Tools
Display Modes



Forum Jump

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 17:46.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.