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Syrian Civil War, 2011 - ? From a local uprising to a proxy war, we discuss the chaos in Syria. |
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23 Feb 16, 17:16
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Real Name: G David Bock
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bellingham, Washington
Posts: 16,013
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daemon of Decay
But not in Iraq.
Sure.
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Perhaps we differ on the definition of humanitarian reasons.
Here's where to find the list of dozen plus (more for sake of any others reading here);
http://www.armchairgeneral.com/forum...ad.php?t=54392
__________________
Whiskey for my men, and beer for my horses.
TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
Bock's First Law of History: The Past shapes the Present, which forms the Future. *
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23 Feb 16, 18:57
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Hobart
Posts: 643
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skoblin
Do you think ISIS or the Islamists/Jihadis would be less hostile? Those are your two other realistic choices for Syria.
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Nah there are other options, where the government structures are to a greater extent left intact but Assad steps down along with some other senior officials. More generally though, a peace that ends in an awkward cease fire between rebel and government forces with the underlying issues that caused the rebellions in the first place not resolved is going to sew the seeds for further problems down the line. A peace under Assad may be maintained, but it is not guaranteed, and it would come at the cost of ongoing repression. There doesn't just need to be leadership change, there needs to be some major overhauls in the country, one extreme possibility is the splitting of the country in general. Nobody is particularly serious about doing what needs to be done for lasting peace, they're more concerned with returning to something resembling stability so everyone can get about their business.
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23 Feb 16, 21:55
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Real Name: G David Bock
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bellingham, Washington
Posts: 16,013
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThoseDeafMutes
Nah there are other options, where the government structures are to a greater extent left intact but Assad steps down along with some other senior officials. More generally though, a peace that ends in an awkward cease fire between rebel and government forces with the underlying issues that caused the rebellions in the first place not resolved is going to sew the seeds for further problems down the line. A peace under Assad may be maintained, but it is not guaranteed, and it would come at the cost of ongoing repression. There doesn't just need to be leadership change, there needs to be some major overhauls in the country, one extreme possibility is the splitting of the country in general. Nobody is particularly serious about doing what needs to be done for lasting peace, they're more concerned with returning to something resembling stability so everyone can get about their business.
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You are kinda close here, but a couple of factors to consider.
ISIS/ISIL/IS and Islamic Jihad in general are on a religious crusade of sorts. Partly because the best places in Paradise/Heaven go to martyrs and Holy Warriors (in Islamic theology/dogma), and otherly because one of Muhammad's last commands was to convert the whole world to Islam, by force when necessary. We have an ideological battle here which the West fails to properly define, which is why it fails to properly deal with.
With the above in consideration, we are also looking at the clash of a religious view and agenda on how to shape the world versus a secular (a.k.a. Western~non-Muslim) view/method of how to run the world. Islam sees no division between religious and secular rules/laws/guv'mint and the Islamists want a Caliphate that combines both religious and government leadership under one ruler, one law - Sharia. Sharia conflicts with what we Yanks refer to as basic human rights, the Bill of Rights as spelled out in our Constitution, similar of which have been adopted by many of the other Western nations/world.
While getting Assad out might help the situation to some of the contestants, others would see his replacement as more of the same, a "same" they don't want and are violently opposed to.
There are no quick and easy solutions here, and most of the Western approach would be more of the "Nation building" that many of the "locals" are opposed to. As I've maintained often, until the fundamentals of Islamic doctrine/dogma can be changed substantially to conform to more modern human rights and self-governance ideals, this planet is locked into a formula of 'forever war' until either we are all (the proper type of ) Muslim or the Jihad Agenda is invalidated and cast to history's dustbin.
__________________
Whiskey for my men, and beer for my horses.
TANSTAAFL = There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch
Bock's First Law of History: The Past shapes the Present, which forms the Future. *
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24 Feb 16, 01:37
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Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: manila
Posts: 7,743
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Or more appropriate to ask, what right do outsiders have to depose governments?
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"We have no white flag."
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24 Feb 16, 01:51
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Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Birmingham
Posts: 3,860
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On the subject of national interest, it is increasingly looking like a Russian backed Assad victory is best for Europe, creating a safe nation to which migrants can be deported.
It is also in Europes nation interest to change asylum rules.
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Ne Obliviscaris, Sans Peur
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24 Feb 16, 02:22
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Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: -
Posts: 3,543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Escape2Victory
On the subject of national interest, it is increasingly looking like a Russian backed Assad victory is best for Europe, creating a safe nation to which migrants can be deported.
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Given that Syrians are not the sole nationality of the refugees and that quite a few of the Syrians have escaped because of Assad that doesn't seem likely. Mainly because the non-refoulement rule and Assad's not so gentle handling of events.
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24 Feb 16, 03:58
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ACG Forums - Field Marshal
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: The city on the river
Posts: 17,770
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaeltaja
Given that Syrians are not the sole nationality of the refugees and that quite a few of the Syrians have escaped because of Assad that doesn't seem likely. Mainly because the non-refoulement rule and Assad's not so gentle handling of events.
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The biggest wave of Syrian refugees to Europe, which began roughly in the fall of 2014 and reached its peak in the summer of 2015, coincided with the advance of the Jihadis/Islamists in Idlib and Latakia provinces and the advance of ISIS into Aleppo and Palmyra provinces. The more likely scenario is that they were fleeing ISIS and the Jihadis, rather than Assad.
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24 Feb 16, 05:47
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Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: -
Posts: 3,543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skoblin
The biggest wave of Syrian refugees to Europe, which began roughly in the fall of 2014 and reached its peak in the summer of 2015, coincided with the advance of the Jihadis/Islamists in Idlib and Latakia provinces and the advance of ISIS into Aleppo and Palmyra provinces. The more likely scenario is that they were fleeing ISIS and the Jihadis, rather than Assad.
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Except it takes time for that wave to reach Europe. And according to quite a few accounts it takes longer than what one might suspect. I believe we will be seeing refugees displaced by the actions you described mainly on this year instead of the last. Keep in mind that the wave will also 'push' those displaced previously further towards Europe.
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24 Feb 16, 09:58
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Red Dwarf
Posts: 23,643
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMan88
Or more appropriate to ask, what right do outsiders have to depose governments?
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Generally it boils down to a combination of ability and perceived need.
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Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.
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24 Feb 16, 10:54
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Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Birmingham
Posts: 3,860
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaeltaja
Given that Syrians are not the sole nationality of the refugees and that quite a few of the Syrians have escaped because of Assad that doesn't seem likely. Mainly because the non-refoulement rule and Assad's not so gentle handling of events.
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'Syrian' has become a magic word for passport forgers. It will be useful to dispel it.
__________________
Ne Obliviscaris, Sans Peur
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25 Feb 16, 18:48
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Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: manila
Posts: 7,743
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arnold J Rimmer
Generally it boils down to a combination of ability and perceived need.
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Sort of a modern "might makes right"? That's the impression I'm getting.
__________________
"We have no white flag."
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15 Sep 16, 05:20
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Real Name: John
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: All over the place
Posts: 3,643
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ShAA
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Very interesting and almost certainly true.
This article seems credible in it's suggestion that it's all about a Gas Pipeline.
__________________
"The thing about quotes on the internet is that you cannot confirm their
validity." - Abraham Lincoln.
"Nothing's going to change while one side it lying about the cause and the other is lying about the solution" - Me
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15 Sep 16, 13:32
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Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Buffalo, NY
Posts: 4,129
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ShAA
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Some media outlets in the US have mislead the Public wrt Syria. Some of my fellow Americans have no idea that most Syrians dress and have the same habits as Americans, that Syrian Christians and Muslims are united in the SAA, the Iraqi Army, Hezbollah, and other militias in the mid east.
Putin is not perfect though. Putin has made a # of insults toward American leadership. I think I get where Putin is coming from though, Putin sees the USA as the strongest country in the world by far...and so Putin through the media will at times go after US leadership to try and appease to Russians, Putin will parade around with no T Shirt to try and make Russia look strong.
Point is that Putin is not perfect nor is Obama. Also some of the media outles from Russia spew anti American propaganda on a daily basis...which helps no one.
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