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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Historical Events & Eras > Warfare by Other Means

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Warfare by Other Means Economics, demographics, cultural, technological, and other factors that have affected the course of history.

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  #1  
Old 02 Jul 16, 23:50
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Why is the World so Dangerous

Why is the World So Dangerous

This booklet provides -- finally -- a clear explanation of what's gone wrong. It's written by the Reagan Administration intelligence official who first predicted the end of the Cold War. Herb Meyer outlines the strategy that enabled the Free World to end the Cold War, and he shows how our abandonment of this strategy has now made the world so dangerous. And he outlines changes in our own country that have turned us from a country that values hard thinking into a country that celebrates soft thinking, He shows how soft thinking has led us to elect leaders who adopt domestic and foreign policies that cannot work, because they make no sense.
...
https://www.amazon.com/Why-World-Dan...dp/0935166106?


Why is the World So Dangerous
A New Booklet by Herb Meyer
AVAILABLE NOW!
http://worldsodangerous.com/


“As a friend of Herb, I have long wanted his full story to be told to the public, only to be told by Herb that classification and clearance requirements would prevent him from telling it himself. To Mr. Meyer’s great surprise, however, one of the key intelligence documents revealing his historic (and that is not too strong a word for it) contribution to victory in the Cold War has been declassified, and historian Paul Kengor has told the world. In a fascinating article, Prof. Kengor lays out the story of how one man’s brilliance changed the world.

‘From 1981 to 1985, Meyer was special assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence, Bill Casey, and vice chairman of the CIA’s National Intelligence Council. In the fall of 1983, he crafted a classified memo titled, “Why Is the World So Dangerous?” The memo has eluded historians, which is a shame. It ought to rank among the most remarkable documents of the Cold War.’”

Thomas Lifson
Editor and Publisher, The American Thinker
.................................................. ......


I met Mr. Meyer a few days ago and have shared some communications since. His insights and observations are essential to strategic thinking for the current world situations and our(USA ~ West) immediate future concerns and considerations. I highly recommend getting a copy and giving it a serious read and thought.
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  #2  
Old 14 Jul 16, 22:27
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Fits here for now and the article title is what some might call "click bait", but the excerpt should provide incentive to read further;

The CIA has a team of clairvoyants

If the CIA had a crystal ball, then they would probably not be routinely blindsided by world events. Lacking such a device, the agency has endured notable analytical failures. During the early 1990s, sudden collapses of Somalia, Zaire, Rwanda, and the Soviet Union seemingly appeared without warning.

Strategic surprises have always been a problem for intelligence agencies. The material impossibility of having eyes everywhere requires making judgments without seeing a complete picture, let alone the future. Assessing the likeliness of future rare political events has had dubious reliability.

Thus, in 1994, the CIA's Directorate of Intelligence commissioned the Political Instability Task Force (PITF), formerly known as the State Failure Task Force, a clairvoyant-esque squad of social-scientist brainiacs charged with churning global political data into global instability forecasts.

The creation of the PITF began at end of the Cold War. The PITF's mission is straightforward  —  make intelligence analysis as holistic as possible, and locate where the next crisis might be, and why.

"The collapse of the Soviet Union completely caught the government off guard. Their models didn't capture that at all. [Their models] didn't even accept it," Monty Marshall, a senior consultant for the PITF and director of the Center for Systemic Peace told War Is Boring.

"The intelligence community was looking for alternative explanations," he added. "The old way of thinking, wasn't catching the new dynamics, trends, that don't fit into the way they understand things."

To meet this task, the team recruited from American academia and included leading political scientists, sociologists and methodologists. In the beginning, they focused on variables as broad as environmental degradation and social conflict. The focus later shifted to cover four main topics  —  revolutionary and ethnic civil war onset, adverse regime change, state collapse, and genocide.

PITF calculates each event's chance of occurring with probabilistic forecasts from six months to two years out, in 167 countries, which the team monitors on a daily basis. Within every country, the PITF's global model accounts for baseline political dynamics, and disruptions in patterns within these dynamics.
....
http://theweek.com/articles/635515/c...m-clairvoyants
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Old 15 Jul 16, 12:27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G David Bock View Post

The CIA has a team of clairvoyants
Hope they were a bit better than this one

Quote:
Psychic medium June Field's powers of clairvoyance failed her when planning a performance at Darwen Theatre in Lancashire, when she failed to predict the 'unforeseen circumstances' that would cause its cancellation.
Quote:
'An Evening of Mediumship with International Medium June Field' was due to take place on 3 April, but has now been postponed until further notice.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/we...s-9204812.html
http://metro.co.uk/2014/03/21/psychi...ances-4671753/
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