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  #31  
Old 19 Jan 13, 09:48
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Originally Posted by brocket 99 View Post
My humble, uneducated opinion: Baby steps. Lets figure out our system..All the noise about Man Made Global Warming- We will prolly suffer the same fate as Mars http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/...-river-on-mars . Perhaps the aliens caused GW on Mars, moved here and did it again...Or the sun baked Mars to death, and we are next... Which seems more plausible? .. Al Gore realized this, then created Green Credits. Tax the Sun..Brilliant move Al Gore and the super rich.
We don't have to do one OR the other.
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  #32  
Old 19 Jan 13, 16:16
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Originally Posted by OpanaPointer View Post
Okay, not planets. Just huge masses, large enough to cause a wobble in the star and so concentrated into a planet-sized lumps.

Not planets, however, just things that act exactly as we expect planets to act.
They have no idea how these masses act or what they are or even if theses indirect indications are even objects. They have a large catalogue of stellar anomalies, consistent with large (mostly much larger than Jupiter) masses orbiting those stars.

Most of the very few direct observations of exoplanet candidates are in orbit around a 30 million year old star. They are all larger than Jupiter, with 5 to 7 times Jupiter's mass and orbital eccentricities comparable to Pluto. Describing these as confirmed exoplanets is a huge stretch. A bigger stretch than me describing an undrilled bright spot as a confirmed oil discovery.
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  #33  
Old 19 Jan 13, 16:20
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Originally Posted by PhilipLaos View Post
Don't use words like "detected" - it upsets Dave.


Philip
I`m fine with "detected" as long as the subject of detection is described an exoplanet "candidate."
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  #34  
Old 19 Jan 13, 16:24
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Originally Posted by G David Bock View Post
Scroll back a few posts here to number 20 and I provided a link to what is claimed to be an exo-planet actually observed. Admittedly one "confirmed" out of several hundred implied may not be great statistics, but a start, and at least 'one other'.
See post #13...
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Doctor View Post
Problem #1 with Exoplanetology: There is no clear definition of "Exoplanet."


Problem #2 with Exoplanetology: 98.5% of the 854 catalogued exoplanets are undiscovered and the other 1.5% are unconfirmed as being actual planets...


The best candidates for actual observations are the four massive bodies imaged in the HR 8799 system (129 LY from Earth). These bodies are MASSIVE, with radii of 1.2 to 2.5 Rj (Jupiter) and masses of 5 to 7 Mj. All but HR 8799 d have orbital eccentricities greater than 0.14. HR 8799 c has an eccentricity of 0.24. One of the reasons Pluto got demoted was the fact that its eccentricity was pushing 0.25.

Furthermore, HR 8799 is only about 30 million years old… So even if the five large masses were of a planetary nature, they would most likely be protoplanets.

If the IAU definition for planets in this Solar System was applied to the 13 directly imaged objects asserted to be exoplanets… I think most of them would get a version of the Pluto treatment.
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  #35  
Old 19 Jan 13, 17:24
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Originally Posted by The Doctor View Post
I`m fine with "detected" as long as the subject of detection is described an exoplanet "candidate."
I wonder then what language you use when speaking about sub-atomic particles.

Or evolution. After one of Tyler's posts today, I looked into the views of this Ken Ham fellow, a fundamentalist Creationist, who seems to take the same approach:

'Ham has frequently made the comment, "Were you there?" regarding the origins of life and evolution, implying that knowledge of unwitnessed events is inferential and not observational.'


Philip
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Last edited by PhilipLaos; 19 Jan 13 at 17:44..
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  #36  
Old 19 Jan 13, 20:10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Doctor View Post
They have no idea how these masses act or what they are or even if theses indirect indications are even objects. They have a large catalogue of stellar anomalies, consistent with large (mostly much larger than Jupiter) masses orbiting those stars.

Most of the very few direct observations of exoplanet candidates are in orbit around a 30 million year old star. They are all larger than Jupiter, with 5 to 7 times Jupiter's mass and orbital eccentricities comparable to Pluto. Describing these as confirmed exoplanets is a huge stretch. A bigger stretch than me describing an undrilled bright spot as a confirmed oil discovery.
You might find "Orbital Mechanics" interesting. The suns wobble like there are planets there, not nebulous masses of gas or pebbles. This is why they're saying there are planets there.
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  #37  
Old 20 Jan 13, 07:25
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Originally Posted by OpanaPointer View Post
You might find "Orbital Mechanics" interesting. The suns wobble like there are planets there, not nebulous masses of gas or pebbles. This is why they're saying there are planets there.
Orbital mechanics provide much of the indirect evidence for exoplanet candidates. However none of the large number of candidates have been confirmed to be planets.
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  #38  
Old 20 Jan 13, 08:08
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Originally Posted by PhilipLaos View Post
I wonder then what language you use when speaking about sub-atomic particles.

Or evolution. After one of Tyler's posts today, I looked into the views of this Ken Ham fellow, a fundamentalist Creationist, who seems to take the same approach:

'Ham has frequently made the comment, "Were you there?" regarding the origins of life and evolution, implying that knowledge of unwitnessed events is inferential and not observational.'


Philip
Quote:
If there is no way in the world to see a atom then how do we know that the atom is made of protons, electrons, neutrons, the nucleus and the electron cloud?

There are three ways that scientists have proved that these sub-atomic particles exist. They are direct observation, indirect observation or inferred presence and predictions from theory or conjecture.

Scientists in the 1800's were able to infer a lot about the sub-atomic world from chemistry. The great Periodic Table of Elements by Mendeleyev gave scientists two very important things. The regularity of the table and the observed combinations of chemical compounds prompted some scientists to infer that atoms had regular repeating properties and that maybe they had similar structures. Scientists made numerous conjectures and some theoretical predictions about what the nature of atomic structure really was. The weights of the elements were found to increase as the elements advanced through the periodic chart and there seemed to be a number, called the atomic number that explained the regular chemical properties. The other big thing that the chart did was to help chemists predict the elements that they had not found. This business of filling in the holes has continued today as new elements are added to the end of the table every few years. A lot was learned by logic and reason and correctly assembling previous knowledge. The holes in that knowledge were filled by inference, conjecture and discovery.

[...]

Jefferson Lab
Exoplanetology is about where particle physics was in the 1800's. They don't even have a set definition for what constitutes an exoplanet.

Subatomic particles aren't necessarily solid particles. They are often excitations of quantum fields and can be generated under repeatable experimental conditions, measured and proved to exist. I can measure gamma ray emissions from rocks in boreholes and differentiate sandstone from shale, even though I can't see the gamma rays. I can generate neutrons and bounce them off rocks in a borehole and determine if the pore space contains natural gas, even if I can't see the neutrons or the gas. The utility of these petrophysical (rock physics) measurements were theoretically predicted and have been confirmed under both expermental and field conditions.

Evolution of species is a scientific theory, supported by direct observations (genetics) and scientifically inferred connections of direct observations (the fossil record). One of the most idiotic aspects of the C vs E debate is the Darwinist insistence that evolution has been elevated from theory to fact and the Creationist argument that evolution is *just* a theory. Both are wrong. Exoplanetology has yet to even board the HMS Beagle.

Last edited by The Doctor; 20 Jan 13 at 12:40..
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  #39  
Old 21 Jan 13, 21:31
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Pardon me. New guy...Not sure how my post was supposed to contribute. Thanks for not gang brow beating...OP was, in retrospect, surprisingly gentle. Tried to delete my post, but too late. Sorry.
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  #40  
Old 21 Jan 13, 21:40
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Originally Posted by The Doctor View Post
Orbital mechanics provide much of the indirect evidence for exoplanet candidates. However none of the large number of candidates have been confirmed to be planets.
I see your quibble and raise you a pettyfog.
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  #41  
Old 21 Jan 13, 21:42
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Originally Posted by brocket 99 View Post
Pardon me. New guy...Not sure how my post was supposed to contribute. Thanks for not gang brow beating...OP was, in retrospect, surprisingly gentle. Tried to delete my post, but too late. Sorry.
Not a big deal. If you want to see how to really screw up a thread, check out Mountain Man's work.


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  #42  
Old 22 Jan 13, 13:48
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Originally Posted by brocket 99 View Post
Pardon me. New guy...Not sure how my post was supposed to contribute. Thanks for not gang brow beating...OP was, in retrospect, surprisingly gentle. Tried to delete my post, but too late. Sorry.
Hey, no problem. Welcome to the boards. Everyone posts something they'd rather not have.

Except me. I'm infallible.


Did I spell that right?
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  #43  
Old 22 Jan 13, 14:33
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Not a big deal. If you want to see how to really screw up a thread, check out Mountain Man's work.




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  #44  
Old 22 Jan 13, 14:36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OpanaPointer View Post
I see your quibble and raise you a pettyfog.
We scientists have to be very precise in our semantics...

Quote:
What Scientists really mean when they say things.

Authoritative statements in scientific journals should not always be taken literally. I.J.Good has made a collection of them.

"It has long been known that..."
I haven't bothered to look up the original reference.

"While it has not been possible to provide definite answers to these questions..."
The experiment didn't work out, but I figured I could at least get a publication out of it.

[...]

"The agreement with the predicted curve is excellent" ...good" ...satisfactory" ...fair."
Fair. Poor. Doubtful. Imaginary.

"As good as could be expected considering the approximations made in the analysis."
Non-existent.

"Of great theoretical and practical importance."
Interesting to me.

"Three of the samples were chosen for detailed study."
The results on the others didn't make sense and were ignored.

[...]

LINK
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  #45  
Old 22 Jan 13, 14:40
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Indirect observation is adequate for this purpose. It will be a while before we can actually eyeball the planets, but by then they'll know exactly where to point the cameras. If there's nothing there to see, I'll apologize for the astronomical community myself.
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