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Alternate Timelines The great "what if's" of military history.

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  #406  
Old 09 Mar 12, 12:26
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"The more you know, the less you blow." Good thing to remember, Rob.
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  #407  
Old 10 Mar 12, 16:22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Naffenea View Post
No kidding. I am personally amazed that the idea that the first couple of hours is all it takes to make or break an invasion.
I don't recall ever having typed any such thing ?

All that I have been discusssing so far is an AT scenario wherein "my" Japanese invaders would attempt to land on Oahu, by surprise, in the dark, on beaches NOT defended yet by dug-in American infantry and artillery. As were their prefered historical landing methods during the early months of the Pacific War. That the US Army defenders of Oahu were handcuffed by their own General Short's Alert #1 anti-sabotage orders, is just a bonus.

To aid in that AT endeavour, I have suggested that the historically passive Combined Fleet battleline of the IJN could have been sent to Hawaiian waters to aid the Kido Butai in suppressing the USAAF, the USN and the US Army defenders of Oahu. 14" and 16" spotterplane directed battleship bombardment of crowded peacetime US Army barracks & depots, as well as USAAF airfields covered with American warplanes parked wingtip-to-wingtip, would have freed up Kido Butai resources for further attacks on USN assets still anchored tightly within Pearl Harbor. As well as greatly delaying any US Army movements towards the invasion beaches over Oahu's limited road and railway grids.

If instead, those two divisions worth of US Army defenders were already deployed to Oahu's beaches, with all of their at hand artillery in support, I too believe that NO Japanese landing could have been successful. The Japanese never historically developed the kind of assault landing skills so favoured by the 1944 Americans.

Since we haven't yet agreed that "my" initial stealthy landings MIGHT be successful, then there seems little point in discussing how "my" AT Japanese invaders might have conducted any further combats on Oahu, is there ?

Quote:
That an island chain the size of Hawaii, let alone just Oahu, can be subdued in a matter or days.
Oahu is just 608 square miles in size.

The question then becomes, what conditions would likely have resulted in Oahu's surrender to Japanese invaders ? John Bryan will no doubt insist that General Short would fight on past the last American civilain. However, I feel that once all US airfields and Oahu's 3 ports were under Japanese control or artillery ranges, then Short would have considered a surrender to prevent a "Rape of Naking" style slaughter of American civilians and military dependent families. Possibly sooner if the invading AT Japanese were able to capture significant numbers of American civlians prior to all American supply points being captured or suppressed.

Quote:
That the Japanese in this timeline are able to win against odds worse than what they faced a few months later.
In the face of both strategic suprise and tactical invasion surprise, along with battleship and limited chemical bombardment, I beleive it fair to think that the American defenders of Oahu might not be well able to resist "my" AT Japanese.

Quote:
That their resupply will always get through.
Again, I don't recall ever having typed anything of the sort. Your words, not mine.

However, one need only read http://www.dutcheastindies.webs.com/us_uksubs.html to see just how dismally the 29 submarines of America's Asiatic Fleet historically fared against Japanese invasion and supply shipping in the early stages of the Pacific War. And exactly why. With even fewer submarines available at Hawaii or on the American West Coast, I see no particular reason to much fear American onslaughts on "my" Hawaii supply ships. Especially when one considers that "my" Japanese would widely publicize the fact that they were placing 1,000 captured PoWs on every such vessel returning to Japan. Women and children first.

Gordon Prange's Oahu tome "At Dawn We Slept" also points out that the US Pacific Fleet only had eleven (11) tankers on Dec.7'41 and that ONLY FOUR (4) of them were capabe of underway refueling. Since two of those 4, the USS Neosho and the USS Ramapo were WITHIN Pearl Harbor on Dec.7'41 and thus vulneable to destruction by "my" AT Japanese invaders, I just don't see the remnants of the US Pacific Fleet as being able to re-fuel extensive surface ship sweeps intended to clear Japanese supply ships from the seas between Hawaii and Japan. Do you ?

Quote:
That the US navy will somehow run from every fight.
As per Adm.Kimmels's own comments in Prange's "ADWS" the USN would have no choice but to retreat back to the US West Coast if denied Oahu's fuel reserves. Which "my" AT Japanese invasion of Oahu would certainly do. It isn't a matter of American bravery at all but simply that NO navy can fight without fuel. Nor without the tankers needed to transport that fuel.

Quote:
That the US political leadership would roll over and seek terms instead of a fight.
In order to potentially save the lives of 500,000 American citizens ? Maybe or maybe not BUT the important thing would be whether or not the Japanese believed that the Americans would "roll over and seek terms". Historically the Japanese went to war believing that they could outlast the American will to fight ONCE they had secured the DEI's oil and had then built a string of fortified and interlocked island bases across the Pacific. Mistakenly as it turned out 4 years later.

I don't see it as much of a "stretch of history" for the Japanese to have (also mistakenly) included a captured Oahu in that string of bases. Or, to have believed that Hawaii could be traded back to the Americans in exchange for US acknowledgement of their new ownership of the DEI's oil resources.

Quote:
He still hasn't addressed the logistical side other than saying "don't worry, it'll be alright".
I have already refered to Glenn239's "Operation Tinkerbell" analysis where he delves in great detail into the amount of food historically available on the Hawaiian Islands in December of 1941. Without even including fresh caught fish, pineapple nor sugarcane, the 3 PRINCIPLE PRODUCTS OF THE HAWWAIIAN ISLANDS AT THAT TIME.

Yes, "my" AT Japanese would have to haul along their own ammunition but really, since they managed to to so quite successfully for their other early war historical invasions, need we waste the time in discussing it here ?

Especially since we have yet to resolve just how long such an invasion of Oahu might reasonably take to subdue those islands. The overall time needed would have a large impact on the import tonnages required, don't you think ?
.
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  #408  
Old 10 Mar 12, 16:30
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So, rob, when you going to apologize for calling me a liar. Still waiting.
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  #409  
Old 10 Mar 12, 17:18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robdab View Post
I don't recall ever having typed any such thing ?

All that I have been discusssing so far is an AT scenario wherein "my" Japanese invaders would attempt to land on Oahu, by surprise, in the dark, on beaches NOT defended yet by dug-in American infantry and artillery. As were their prefered historical landing methods during the early months of the Pacific War. That the US Army defenders of Oahu were handcuffed by their own General Short's Alert #1 anti-sabotage orders, is just a bonus.

To aid in that AT endeavour, I have suggested that the historically passive Combined Fleet battleline of the IJN could have been sent to Hawaiian waters to aid the Kido Butai in suppressing the USAAF, the USN and the US Army defenders of Oahu. 14" and 16" spotterplane directed battleship bombardment of crowded peacetime US Army barracks & depots, as well as USAAF airfields covered with American warplanes parked wingtip-to-wingtip, would have freed up Kido Butai resources for further attacks on USN assets still anchored tightly within Pearl Harbor. As well as greatly delaying any US Army movements towards the invasion beaches over Oahu's limited road and railway grids.

If instead, those two divisions worth of US Army defenders were already deployed to Oahu's beaches, with all of their at hand artillery in support, I too believe that NO Japanese landing could have been successful. The Japanese never historically developed the kind of assault landing skills so favoured by the 1944 Americans.

Since we haven't yet agreed that "my" initial stealthy landings MIGHT be successful, then there seems little point in discussing how "my" AT Japanese invaders might have conducted any further combats on Oahu, is there ?

Oahu is just 608 square miles in size.

The question then becomes, what conditions would likely have resulted in Oahu's surrender to Japanese invaders ? John Bryan will no doubt insist that General Short would fight on past the last American civilain. However, I feel that once all US airfields and Oahu's 3 ports were under Japanese control or artillery ranges, then Short would have considered a surrender to prevent a "Rape of Naking" style slaughter of American civilians and military dependent families. Possibly sooner if the invading AT Japanese were able to capture significant numbers of American civlians prior to all American supply points being captured or suppressed.

In the face of both strategic suprise and tactical invasion surprise, along with battleship and limited chemical bombardment, I beleive it fair to think that the American defenders of Oahu might not be well able to resist "my" AT Japanese.

Again, I don't recall ever having typed anything of the sort. Your words, not mine.

However, one need only read http://www.dutcheastindies.webs.com/us_uksubs.html to see just how dismally the 29 submarines of America's Asiatic Fleet historically fared against Japanese invasion and supply shipping in the early stages of the Pacific War. And exactly why. With even fewer submarines available at Hawaii or on the American West Coast, I see no particular reason to much fear American onslaughts on "my" Hawaii supply ships. Especially when one considers that "my" Japanese would widely publicize the fact that they were placing 1,000 captured PoWs on every such vessel returning to Japan. Women and children first.

Gordon Prange's Oahu tome "At Dawn We Slept" also points out that the US Pacific Fleet only had eleven (11) tankers on Dec.7'41 and that ONLY FOUR (4) of them were capabe of underway refueling. Since two of those 4, the USS Neosho and the USS Ramapo were WITHIN Pearl Harbor on Dec.7'41 and thus vulneable to destruction by "my" AT Japanese invaders, I just don't see the remnants of the US Pacific Fleet as being able to re-fuel extensive surface ship sweeps intended to clear Japanese supply ships from the seas between Hawaii and Japan. Do you ?

As per Adm.Kimmels's own comments in Prange's "ADWS" the USN would have no choice but to retreat back to the US West Coast if denied Oahu's fuel reserves. Which "my" AT Japanese invasion of Oahu would certainly do. It isn't a matter of American bravery at all but simply that NO navy can fight without fuel. Nor without the tankers needed to transport that fuel.

In order to potentially save the lives of 500,000 American citizens ? Maybe or maybe not BUT the important thing would be whether or not the Japanese believed that the Americans would "roll over and seek terms". Historically the Japanese went to war believing that they could outlast the American will to fight ONCE they had secured the DEI's oil and had then built a string of fortified and interlocked island bases across the Pacific. Mistakenly as it turned out 4 years later.

I don't see it as much of a "stretch of history" for the Japanese to have (also mistakenly) included a captured Oahu in that string of bases. Or, to have believed that Hawaii could be traded back to the Americans in exchange for US acknowledgement of their new ownership of the DEI's oil resources.

I have already refered to Glenn239's "Operation Tinkerbell" analysis where he delves in great detail into the amount of food historically available on the Hawaiian Islands in December of 1941. Without even including fresh caught fish, pineapple nor sugarcane, the 3 PRINCIPLE PRODUCTS OF THE HAWWAIIAN ISLANDS AT THAT TIME.

Yes, "my" AT Japanese would have to haul along their own ammunition but really, since they managed to to so quite successfully for their other early war historical invasions, need we waste the time in discussing it here ?

Especially since we have yet to resolve just how long such an invasion of Oahu might reasonably take to subdue those islands. The overall time needed would have a large impact on the import tonnages required, don't you think ?
.
Yet, you still don't posess the critical and necessary 2-1 edge in troop numbers and supporting arms to overcome the 4 division's worth of well trained US military forces on Oahu, during any amphibibious invasion. You're forgetting too that Oahu was the "Gibralter of the Pacific", with a much heavier concentration of coastal artillery batteries than anywhere on the US Mainland. You forgot also that all of Oahu's coastal artillery forts, Fort's Kamehamea, Ruger and etc. had full allotments of live, AP ammunition in their magazines, unlike some of the army's flak batteries, along with equally well trained gun crews. I'd venture to say that after the first US Army 16" armor piercing round's salvo detonated deep in the belly of an offshore Japanese battleship, your Kido Butai would quickly forget about bombarding Hickam and other US Army Air Corps bases and flee to the safer waters far and removed from pursuing US Coastal Artillery fire.

Why would tankers be needed, considering all the ships in the harbor had already been fully fueled and any additional refueling could easily be done under the cover of darkness, as was done by the USS Enterpriser task force, a few days later. Lastly, you grossly underestimate the fighting spirit of Admiral Kimmel. It was he who decided to make the last minute, aircraft reinforcements to the Marine garrisons on Wake and Midway Island, even though he fully expected war to break out in the week to come. Kimmel's own words in his defense speaks volumes when he said that had he known of a possible Japanese air attack on Oahu being inbound, he would have eagerly sought battle with them and cleared the harbor of ships, while rendesvousing with Newton's and Halsey's task forces offshore..
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  #410  
Old 10 Mar 12, 19:54
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Robdab, I'm still waiting for you to answer this:

"How could the Japanese, with two infantry divisions, additional supporting SNLF troops, a company of tanks and posessing overwhelming, heavy offshore, naval gunfire bombardment capability, not to mention, posessing complete naval superiority throughout much of the entire campaign, could not take a single, lightly defended airfield, against one half-starved, disease ridden US Marine division with fewer tanks, light artillery, and just a few aircraft at Guadalcanal? Plus the Japanese had a number of supporting airfields within fighter plane range, and a major logistics, air and naval base at Rabaul, yet their soldiers on Guadalcanal still died from starvation, disease and sheer privation, while their repeated ground attacks against the Marine Perimeter failed.

If the Japanese could not defeat one US Marine Division with more than two of their own on Guadalcanal, while having much heavier air & naval support, how could they hope to defeat two, if not four heavily reinforced US divisions on Oahu that posessed far more and much heavier artillery batteries, hundreds of aircraft, while the Japanese had no friendly, nearby supply bases to support their invasion? Every grain of rice, gallon of aviation gas and rifle bullet had to come from the Marshall Islands or much farther away from the fighting going on in the Territory of Hawaii."

IMHO, this makes the entire tinkerbelle thing a moot point, because historically speaking, the Japanese were never able to mount a successful invasion against such well armed, well-trained, healthy, Allied troops in all of WWII. The disparity in automatic weapons alone quickly becomes quite clear.

What's more illuminating still, is the simple fact that the soldiers of the 24th and 25th US Infantry Divisions were not "green and inexperienced troops" by any means, or as you so wrongly suggested, nor were the National Guard Regiments who'd been in Federal service and in training since 1940 either. They were all long service, veteran troopers, who were there for the simple reason that military duty in the Hawaian Islands, like those stationed in the Philippines, was considered to be a "plum assignment". The men of the 3 US Marine Defense Battalions at Pearl Harbor were also more of the same, except that many, if not most of them, had served in China or had fought in the "Bananna Wars" in Central America or the Carribean of the 1920's and 30's." These so-called "green troops" would soon be piling-up tens of thousands of "veteran" Japanese soldier bodies in deep rows in the jungles of New Guinea and on Guadalcanal before 1942 was out. Added to this, the two primarily US Nisei Japanese Regiments on Oahu later went on to form the 442nd Regimental Combat Team "Go For Broke," the most highly decorated US regiment in WWII.
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  #411  
Old 10 Mar 12, 21:13
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I'm baaaccckkkk!....

Robdab's scenario is garbage. Why rehash what's already been beaten to death.

http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtop...?f=11&t=159159
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  #412  
Old 11 Mar 12, 08:42
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I've learned a few things reading this, so it's not a total loss. Plus it's motivated me to break out the Exhibits of the Navy Court of Inquiry. They've been separated into individual PDFs and will be uploaded this week. There are quite a few nuggets in there for the interested party.
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Old 11 Mar 12, 16:44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
I'm baaaccckkkk!....

Robdab's scenario is garbage. Why rehash what's already been beaten to death.

http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtop...?f=11&t=159159
Wow! I just re-read the entire thread, rather than just some randomly selected posts on the "forum.axishistory site" and it looks like Robdab finishes out of contention, yet again.
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Old 11 Mar 12, 17:08
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Another thing that recently came to mind. Go ahead and hold the white population hostage on Oahu, if you wrongly think that could possibly make any difference in the prosecution of the war. However, the same thing also happened in the Philippines, but nothing was ever achieved there and many were held there throughout the war in POW camps, inspite of many being repatriated back to the US on neutral ships. Once again, you demonstrate no idea of the mainland US citizen mindset in the mid-1940's. Why do you think we still refer to them as our "Greatest Generation?" They knew first hand of personal sacrifice after the Great Depression and would continue to do so for the total, utter and complete destruction of the evil and animalistic, Japanese Empire and all that it stood for..
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Old 11 Mar 12, 17:28
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Let's look at this from yet another angle too. That is, let's assume Japan manages to pull it off, albeit with heavy losses in ships and personnel.
The question is, what does it buy them?

Since this operation would have pretty much required something else be left out let's assume that the Japanese forego the Philippines occupation. It is the least critical of their other operations as the others are necessary to secure needed and vital resources.

It is likely that the Philippines and Australia will be reinforced to a point where they are untakable in short order. This means their southern flank and shipping lines are threatened far more than they were historically.

The US can still mount a submarine campaign against Hawaii and Japanese supply ships going there. It is certain that the facilities at Pearl are in less than pristine condition and if the US has several ships sunk in the entry channel the harbor is unusable completely, or nearly so.
Honolulu's port, by comparison, is tiny. The US coast defenses would be useless to the Japanese just as the ones in the Philippines and elsewhere were as the crews spiked and sabotaged their equipment as they withdrew or surrendered.

The US also has the option of just keeping the Pacific War on the back burner until Europe is finished in any case. Japan still gets crushed eventually, probably in a much wider nuclear holocaust if the US chooses this route.

So, the Japanese lose if they win and they lose if they lose. Hawaii is an all-round losing strategy as an occupation proposition.
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Old 11 Mar 12, 17:32
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Interesting. The US fought a two front war, something Germany never mastered, and won. If we'd let the Pacific perk, the Japanese would have had stronger defenses and perhaps worked up the nerve to attack Russia, or Australia. How does that play out?
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Old 11 Mar 12, 17:43
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It bears reposting, even with my humble additions:

Here's a nice summarization of Robdab's tinkerbelle operation on that same site:

"1. The Japanese will attack at night, except when it needs to be day. 'Uness it needs to be both night and day at the same time.'
2. The Japanese will benefit from favorable cloud cover, which will exist when and where they need it, except when they don't need it. 'Unless they need both to hold true ast the same time.'
3. All Americans on Oahu will be blind" 'and completely drunk' "as to all events occurring beyond the shoreline of the islands" 'even the flash, explosion and concussion of Japanese battleship main gun high explosive salvos.'.
4. The Americans at Oahu will only be capable of defending against sabotage, except when the Japanese attempt sabotage. 'But even then, they will be so blind and drunk and incompetant, so as to be completely ineffective as to the actions of the much vaunted, invading China- veteran, "Japanese Supermen."
5. The US troops assigned to inner guard, supplementary guard, and mobile patrols will only be "a few night watchmen". They will neither see, report, or attempt to repell any actions against their posts. 'In Robdab's backwards, fantasy-world they will most certainly do so.'
6. The troops assigned to their posts won't be at their posts, except at the posts they need to be, to be hit by a bombardment that cannott actually hit them. ' Except by battleship float planes who demonstrated no doctrinal possibility of doing so until after March, 1942.' Before that, it was a non-starter.
7. Batteries and personnel reported to be at locations in the Hearing Record and located on maps prepared before the attack can't be there because American forces are not allowed to fire across the bows of Japanese vessels." ' You also cannot have US Army troops extract rifle caliber rounds from loaded, machine gun belts, for use in their rifles, at Bellow's Field, because that wouldn't be "Cricket." '
8. The Japanese will have the troops and ships whenever they require, whether or not they exist or are, in fact capable of the tasks required of them.

Did I miss anything?"

9.Yeah, the Japanese will also have intimate and complete knowledge of all US military FM radio frequency signal technologies, in order to succcessfully jam them, despite never possessiing any such knowledge before, until 1944.

Other than this, it appears to be a sane plan..

Lastly, I've got a great first-person testimony from a recently retired, lifetime, Iraqi War combat veteran, US Army Artillery Sergeant that will toss a ton of counter information about the US Army Artillery forces on Oahu being undermanned on Oahu in WWII and the ways how it could have been quickly and easily remedied.
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Old 11 Mar 12, 17:58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
Let's look at this from yet another angle too. That is, let's assume Japan manages to pull it off, albeit with heavy losses in ships and personnel.
The question is, what does it buy them?

Since this operation would have pretty much required something else be left out let's assume that the Japanese forego the Philippines occupation. It is the least critical of their other operations as the others are necessary to secure needed and vital resources.

It is likely that the Philippines and Australia will be reinforced to a point where they are untakable in short order. This means their southern flank and shipping lines are threatened far more than they were historically.

The US can still mount a submarine campaign against Hawaii and Japanese supply ships going there. It is certain that the facilities at Pearl are in less than pristine condition and if the US has several ships sunk in the entry channel the harbor is unusable completely, or nearly so.
Honolulu's port, by comparison, is tiny. The US coast defenses would be useless to the Japanese just as the ones in the Philippines and elsewhere were as the crews spiked and sabotaged their equipment as they withdrew or surrendered.

The US also has the option of just keeping the Pacific War on the back burner until Europe is finished in any case. Japan still gets crushed eventually, probably in a much wider nuclear holocaust if the US chooses this route.

So, the Japanese lose if they win and they lose if they lose. Hawaii is an all-round losing strategy as an occupation proposition.
It would probably be in Washington DC's favor that a prolonged war in the Hawaiian Islands would continue for several months there. In that time, MacArthur's Forces in the PI could have been substantially and fully re-equipped, reinforced, with their new green Filippino Divisions being fully trained and equipped, with a serious "Switzerland of the Pacific" being created throughout the entire archapelago. A potential Japanese invasion of the PI on Luzon against 12 fully trained and equipped US and Filippino Divisions could very well have been driven back into the sea, wherever they attempted to come ashore.. That could be embarrassing to all those much vaunted, veteran, China Veteran Japanese Supermen..
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Old 11 Mar 12, 18:44
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Originally Posted by OpanaPointer View Post
Interesting. The US fought a two front war, something Germany never mastered, and won. If we'd let the Pacific perk, the Japanese would have had stronger defenses and perhaps worked up the nerve to attack Russia, or Australia. How does that play out?
Actually, the Japanese would have had weaker defenses. What set in motion the heavy fortification of islands in the Pacific was the Makin Atoll raid. Up to that point the Japanese didn't seriously believe the US was going to make a concerted effort to actually take back any Pacific Islands. The Japanese also based their defenses on their own assessment of their ability to take those islands.

After the Makin raid the Japanese realized their defenses were woefully under developed and that the US could take islands they thought were untakable. Guadalcanal hammered home that lesson.

Without the US making any real effort initially to take anything back from the Japanese and being content to just fortify places still in their possession like the Philippines the Japanese likely would have gotten hit harder and faster for fewer casualties when the US did finally come for them.
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Originally Posted by johnbryan View Post
It only takes a half second to make a green recruit into a veteran soldier.
If you truly believe that, then there is nothing left for you and I to discuss here.


For our other more realistic readers though, I present the following quotes from Gordon Prange's book, "Dec.7 1941: The Day the Japanese Attacked Pearl Harbor" which I hope will aid them in making up their own minds wrt the historical alertness and combat readiness exhibited by the American defenders of Oahu on that infamous morning:

from Page 24 comes: "At Schofield Barracks Maj.Gen. Maxwell Murray, in command of the 25th Infantry Division, had taken measures a few days before just in case of combat rather than sabotage. He "never dreamed that there was a possibility of carriers." He thought that there might be a raid by what, in disreguard of naval terminology, he called "boats". To avoid possible slaughter from Japanese bombs dropping into the magazine area while hundreds of men were drawing ammunition, Murray "violated the usual regulations regarding ammunition by moving all infantry ammunition except high explosives into the company baracks." Thus on this Sunday morning his men had available "as much as 30 rounds of ammunition in the belts, ... ready for immediate action."
Well, I guess 30 rounds is better than none at all but how long would that last in actual ground combat ? And without handgrenades, mortar and artillery rounds in support since those were in the "high explosive" category. Against Japanese invaders well equipped with those same types of heavy support weaponry.

from pages 24 & 25 we find: "But in the optinion of Pvt. Philippe A. Michaud of the 515th Signal Aircraft Warning Regiment, Schofield was "more like a campus or a training base" than an offensive or defensive military installation. Maneuvers were held periodically, but these were "Civil War type skirmishes back in the cane fields: the posts were defended against sabateurs (never against an enemy soldier, or air attack somehow) by men who had never fired a gun." Michaud's impression was that Schofield reacted to alerts "by having more surprise inspections of footlockers, and cutting the grass a little closer."

Schofield was fine as far as housing was concerned - "very well kept, picturesque, and spotless." To Michaud, however, it appeared that the installation lacked "a real military mission. It was as though the troops there were training for a war that was going to take place somewhere else." Undue emphasis was placed on sports competion between outfits."
So, are we really to believe that men who had never fired a gun would somehow become long service, combat experienced, veteran troops, after just 30 seconds against AT Japanese invaders ??

Over at Kaneohe NAS, the station commander, "Beauty" Martin reported via pages #173/4 that: " As of December 7, he had under him personnel totaling 31 officers and 303 enlisted men, as well as a Marine contingent of 3 officers and 93 men. ... To protect these aircraft, Martin had only machine guns and rifles. Kaneohe had had the temporary protection of some Army antiaircraft guns, but these had been rolled back to their home sites on December 5. As for readiness, Machinest Guy Avery described Kaneohe's predicament:

There were no gun emplacements for defense. Even the landing mat was not yet completed. The only arms on the station were three or four dozen Springfield 30-06s and probably a half a dozen BARs. All securely locked in the armory. Of course there was a pair of machineguns in each of the PBYs ... but those flying boats were unmanned at the moment."

So, please explain to me again, how those more or less defenseless Americans were going to successfully resist well armed AT Japanese landing troops coming ashore out of the darkness of Kaneohe Bay ? "Cakewalk" comes to mind for me. Especially when you consider that the AT Japanese invaders would also have had a gunfire support destroyer or two near to hand just offshore, as well.

Page #198 provides insight on Japanese pre-battle intell gathering with: "As Ema turned to make his dive, his mind briefly turned back to 1936 when as a midshipman he had visited Schofield Barracks, adjacent to Wheeler. But he had no time for reminiscences of more peaceful days. As many on the ground noted, the bombers came in very low. In fact, two of the planes in Ema's group struck telephone wires and returned to their carrier with short bits of wire wrapped around their wheels. After each dive bomber dropped it's missle, it returned four or five times to strafe. After about 20 minutes of action, they roared away toward the Zuikaku, with not a single plane lost or damaged." Yet another way that "my" AT Japanese might have rendered Oahu's telephone system more ineffective with little additional effort or risk.

Pages #210/1 provides a historical perspective on just how little the sound of gunfire upset Oahu's population due to General Short's and Admiral Kimmel's constant training drills and exercises: "The infantry machine guns had gone into action even before General Wilson, in command of the 24th Infantry Division, had reached his Headquarters, about a 5 minute drive from his home. Hearing the thunder of the attack, Mrs. Wilson assumed, as did many other Army people, that the Navy was holding maneuvers. She remarked disapprovingly to her husband who was in bed, "I think that the Navy has gone too far, having exercises like this on a Sunday."

Also of note is:

"The Leards got up hastily and went out in the yard. Planes were flying around extremely low, and they could hear the rat-tat-tat of machine guns. "This is a hell iof a time for the air force to be putting on a maneuver," Col. Leard complained to his wife. "And they have even gone to the extreme of camoflaging their planes !" Alert, aware and on-guard ? No, I don't really believe so ...

Page #347 enlightens us with : "At Hickam, too, Hawaiian Air Force personnel served as ground defenders to protect the airfield and bomb dump in case of the anticipated Japanese landing. Corporal Bongo was shocked at the amount of damage the enemy had inflicted at Hickam and nearby Pearl Harbor. He "expected the Japanese to continue the attack later the same day." He thought a quick follow-through could well succeed, "because everything was in utter confusion that first day." Our readers here will have to decide for themselves ...


Last but not least, one of my own historical favourites from page #242:
"Capt.Wesley C.Wilson, executive officer of the Eleventh Tank Company at Schofield later estimated, "It took me an hour and a half to realize that fighting was going on and I was right in the middle of it ... I had the impression that the United States was so big and strong that no one would dare attack it. ... Wilson did so, at the back of his mind the uneasy suspicion that the Japanese were already on the beaches."

"My" AT invasion of Oahu scenario would have made his uneasy suspicion into a hard fought reality ...
.
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