Grand Strategy: Alternate WW2

[Wolery]

Maybe someone should do this with regular World War II, but here goes:

You are Franklin Roosevelt. It is June of 1942. Midway has just been won, and the US is about ready to start flexing muscle. Here's the map:



Axis:
Dark Grey: Germany and minor Axis
Light Grey: European Axis occupied zones
Brown: Italy (in universe Third Roman Empire)
Yellow: Japanese and Japanese occupation zones
Dark Yellow: Italian areas with violently diseffected ethnic groups

Allies:
Grey Green: United States of America
Pink: British Federation, Commonwealth, Empire and Allied occupied territories
Purple: Minor Allies
Green: Republic of China
Dark Yellow: Union of Soviet Socialists Republics

Neutral:
Blue: Pro-Axis Neutrals
Yellow: Pro-Allied Neutrals
White: Truly Neutral

Good News:

Think America in our WWII

Britain is larger, better organized and raring for a fight

The Battle of Britain was very brief (March-April 1940)

China is larger and has backdoor lend lease access (though limited) from British India (Afghanistan)

Though it has been a generation since their defeates, the Serbs, Bulgarian and Turks very much resent the Italian boot on their necks. Perhaps they could prove useful...

Bad News:

Vichy France joined the Axis after the British ambushed their fleet in North Africa. The African theater has not gone well since.

Japan has seized all of New Guinea and is poised to strike at India and Australia or India, perhaps both

Brazil is very pro-Axis. Bringing them into the war opens another front for the British. They will NOT like that.

Persia is not a viable target for occupation as Axis forces are nearby and ready to invade in the 'defense' the Shah

Ugly News:

The Axis have completely overrun the Middle East. Oil has been flowing steady to the Germans since 1941

The Germans have Ural Bombers and have done great damage the Grozny oil fields.

Disturbing rumors of mass killings of Jews and other Nazi enemies has reached your ears but aside from Mussolini and Petain telling Hitler his racial policies will not be implemented in their respective countries, nothing solid.

Hitler has promised freedom and support to any Indian people who rise up against the British. British India is a powder keg, with various factions seizing each other and their potential patrons up and down.

You do not know if the atomic bomb program will work in time, or at all.

Complicated news:

The Netherlands is allied to you, but only in the Pacific. Under no circumstances will they tussle with Germany...

...But Holland and Denmark are ripe for espionage.

France was overrun in 1939, and Hitler was able to invade Russia the following June. BUT...

...the reason was Stalin's invasion of the Baltic state of Livonia, one of the last functioning democracies in Europe. Livonia is allied to Germany, but the public is still somewhat sympathetic to the Livonian cause.

To make matters worse: their is a division of American volunteers fighting for the Livonian government called the George Washington Division. They signed up to fight in Finland, but the division's contract was bought out by the Livionian government in May 1940. The division has stated they will not bear arms against fellow Americans but will fulfil their duties to Livonia. Livonia is not at war with the United States, but Stalin demands 'influence' there. The American public supports Livonian independence, or did as recently as December 5, 1941 by a large margin. Lavonia is caught between Hitler and Stalin, but seeing Livonia fall could be bad for re-election.

Assuming infrustrure is about the same between our worlds at this juncture, what do you, as president of the United States, do to bring about the victorious end of the war? What's the game plan, and why?

God be with you, Mr. President.

[Wolery]

No takers?

If you gotta know, that AH project of mine has been coming along, but I've run into a hitch because I'm really deviating from source material; it just seems more honest to the world I'm making I guess. So before I proceed, I'd like to know how the Allies would try and win.

[T. A. Gardner]

Before I'd bother with a demolition of this mess (aka The Allies win and Germany and Japan are crushed) you need to clean up the details quite a bit.
There are structurial inconsistancies, gross historical inaccuracies needing explaination and, generally you lack so many necessary details it isn't really worth my time to pour your dreams through the proverbial paper shredder.

Let me just point out one of the inconsistancies here:

Brazil is "pro-axis." In January 1942, Brazil broke off diplomatic relations with Germany, Japan and, Italy. Brazil was the most pro-US country in Latin America. In addition, the US was pumping about $60 million a month in foreign aid into Latin America in general at that time. From your starting point it is less than 90 days to their declairing war on the Axis powers.
Trade spending with Latin America through WW 2 amounted to over $6 Billion dollars (about 6 Manhattan projects).
On top of that virtually all of the South American countries were signatories to the Declairation of Panama signed on October 3 1939 that declared the Americas to a distance 300 to 1000 miles off shore a Hemispheric Defense Zone and that no European powers would be tolerated in war operations there.
The most reticent of all South American countries was probably Argentina. They were marginally pro-axis up through about 1944. But, they also knew what side was buttering their bread so they remained neutral until March 1945.
Even Mexico made great reproachments with the US. Relations thawed considerably and both benefited from them. Both became closer allies and there was no hope of a German infiltration or political union there either.

Essentially, unless you want to stretch history beyond recognition all of the Americas are going to throw in with the US.

[Wolery]

Okay Mr. Gardner, I'll be happy to elaborate:

What you have to understand is that at no point, did the world I am proposing diverge from ours. It has always been a separate entity and at no point whatsoever does their history and our COMPLETELY converge. Venus has a moon, and is populated by polythestic Humans about two or three centuries behind Earth in technolgy, for example.

Brazil, why be pro-Axis? Well, Pro-Axis is a catch all term. Spain is the only true pro-Axis in the technical sense. Armenia is rooting for the Germans, but only because they fear the Commies more than the Italians. Brazil falls under the category of 'We will buy and sell to whomever the hell we want. If you impede our commerce is any way this morning, we will be at war tonight, no questions asked,' as does Sweden, Denmark and Switzerland. The Monroe doctrine is not nearly as effective here because the Western Hemisphere has never been America's playground. The British never let America cultivate that idea in the 19th century, and made it very clear that if Britain did 'housecleaning,' the US was to mind its own damn business. The paradigm has shifted since World War I, but nonetheless, the Latin American countries like to play with the big boys, they court various countries to suit their needs and whims. I never meant to say Brazil wanted war with the Allies: it DOESN'T. But Brazil needs to be handled carefully, especially in light of a very long running animosity with the British who essentially fused the Pirati Republic and Paraguay together solely to create a buffer state between Brazil and British Patagonia. The rest of Latin America wants nothing to do with the war, although with tact, and money, most of them will politely turn their backs on the Axis.

Nest question probably on your mind is: why the hell is Italy so big? And that of course is a valid questions, though I thought it better to not explain concentrate on the assessment of the 42 situation. Italy though it comes late to the Industrial Revolution, was completely united (except for Savoy as a buffer state with France) in 1715, at the end of the War of the Spanish Succession. This Italy is ruled by the descendants of Constantine XI, who barely got out of Constantinople with their lives. This Italy, under Catholic Paleologi played the diplomatic game very well, and came in late enough to see this was a long war, and played their hands against the Ottomans, leaving the Alps quiet(er) for most of the war. Understanding the Turks had no real offensive capacity, they landed on undefended beaches (unlike Gallipoli) pioneered some modern amphibious operations, cut off the British advance to the Syrian/Kurdish border, and crushed Bulgaria which had a huge Red Revolution at the end of the war, all the while badly fraying the Anglo-French alliance to Italian advantage. Ataturk massacred the Italians at Ankara, burnt Smyrna, and the new Yugoslav government, seeing Italian weakness and citing border disputes declared war. The end result is obvious. But that story is for another day.

If you need anything else covered, I will be happy to explain.

[R. Evans]

I'm confused, yellow is the Japanese Empire but also pro-Allied neutrals?

[T. A. Gardner]

Okay. I'll bite for a bit.

I make the assumption that transportation systems and their availability are equivalent to those historically available to the various powers along with their armed forces being roughly of similar capacity since changes were not given.

The US and Britain blockship the Suez canal in June. This effectively ends its use to the Axis as they lack the capacity to clear the wrecks.
Britain with some US material support overrun and retake the minimal Italian / German forces in Ethopia and retake Massawa. The shipping Germany and Italy were using are lost along with that they previously had lost there. This is a minor disaster for the Axis.
German forces in Egypt are unable to interviene due to lack of any land route into the region. The blockage of the Suez Canal prevents what miniscule naval forces they have from doing anything at all.
The Vichy French refuse to send their naval forces as they are reluctant Allies.
On the issue of Vichy forces: The French are reluctant to provide any active offensive support now that the US is in the war. The French have been informally told if Germany loses France loses with them if they do by US diplomats behind the scenes. So, while publically they are siding with the Germans they will do nothing to upset the apple cart with the US so to speak.
Hitler is enraged by the French reluctance but torn between the cost of fighting to occupy their territory over just letting them be.
In the Americas, Brazil's economy is crashing into horrendous debt as their overseas exports dry up. The US has all but officially cut their trade due to Brazil's position while dumping over $70 million into neighboring countries a month in additional trade. Brazil's trade with the Axis is essentially zero due to Allied naval interdiction. The US is also stirring up Brazil's neighbors using the OAS and other political groups in the Americas to put pressure on them to end their position.

All of Africa below the equatorial is quickly falling into Allied hands. The French are putting up only token resistance where they exist. Elsewhere, the Germans and Italians lacking naval forces, are being rolled up without problem.
The part of the Middle East the Germans own doesn't have any oil fields to speak of in 1942. Aside from that, those that exist require shipping lanes to make work. There are no rail lines to europe, nor no pipelines. Germany is getting nothing from the Middle East. With the Suez blocked this is doubly the case.

Japan is so stetched militarily that it is obvious to the Allies they are not going to advance any time soon. The SWPA under MacAuthur is building up strength and putting severe strain on the Japanese in the DEI and New Guinea through shipping strikes and aerial attacks.

The US occupies Greenland and Iceland in force. There is nothing the Axis can do to stop this. Denmark may be "outraged" but they too can do nothing.

Wtih China receiving regular supplies, from the US / Britain the Japanese are facing an increasingly one-sided air war they are losing. They cannot replace losses and the aircraft they have are increasingly inferior in quality. They lack the manpower on the ground to make serious advances and are basically stalled.

The British supply enough Spitfire Mk VIII HF and basic radar sets to the Soviets to make the handful of German "Ural Bombers" feel the hurt. Losses are mounting to nearly 10% per raid due to lack of escorts and the bomber's inability to defend themselves. With the German production rate at only about 5 per month in replacements Göring is calling a halt to raids due to losses.

A US / Commonwealth force move to occupy Iran. This threatens German friendly Iraq and the Middle East. The Germans lacking shipping are in a quandry about what to do.

In the US a landing force is being assembled to retake North Africa. Diplomacy with the Vichy is beginning to undermine their resistance and to get a quick surrender when the US lands.

The draft is increased to bring the US Army to 150 divisions with 30 of those being armored by 1944.
Needing more carries WP Orange emergancy XCV program, WPL 10, was put into action with the first conversions the carriers: Herbert Hoover and Calvin Coolidge are nearing completion. These are the first of eight large liner conversions to be made. All will be finished before 1943.

I don't know were "Livonia" is but the American ex-pats fighting there have been declaired traitors to the US and there is a press blitz making them look bad going on. (this is 1942 this sort of thing is possible in the US press then).

Basically, the Axis is stretched beyond their breaking point. They lack seapower to effectively control such a large area. Their forces cannot really advance due to lack of logistical means.
The Japanese are likewise in a similar situation.

The US is playing a game of attrition along with their Allies. The Axis is getting weaker by the day and it just a matter of time before they lose this version too.

[daemonofdecay]

Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner

Brazil is "pro-axis." In January 1942, Brazil broke off diplomatic relations with Germany, Japan and, Italy. Brazil was the most pro-US country in Latin America. In addition, the US was pumping about $60 million a month in foreign aid into Latin America in general at that time.

Not to mention that Brazilian troops fought in Italy during WW2, although it was later in the war.

Interesting map though. Personally I was a little confused about the Italy = Roman Empire deal with Turkey and whatnot being invaded.