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Old 02 Jul 15, 15:29
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More on the submarines. The historical Japanese plan had submarines stationed in a semi-circle off Pearl Harbor's mouth at a distance of about 8 miles to 20 miles with more ranging out to about 100 miles.

Coming in closer than about 6 or 7 miles puts the submarines in the declared "Submarine exclusion area" where the Ward is patrolling, actively looking for submarines.
Any serious detection gets the duty DD's (Monaghan and Helm) to respond to assist Ward.

Since we know historically the Japanese subs sank or torpedoed exactly ZERO warships that sortied from Pearl Harbor following the attack we can make a reasonable assumption that Draco's plan will have similar results.

If, as he wants, they surface to engage the US, they are at a horrible disadvantage in firepower and maneuverability to the Pacific Fleet, coast defense guns, and even aircraft.
On aircraft, the USN has a PBY (one of three that survived the attack because it was airborne) in the exclusion area to assist the destroyer. So, the subs are going to get spotted if they surface and spotted almost immediately.
As soon as that happens the coast defenses will begin to get manned. The two duty DD will join Ward. The fleet will be alerted and go to GQ setting Zed.
It goes down hill from there. Spotting several subs is going to raise things to a general alert. Once the shooting starts (to the detriment of the subs mostly) surprise is gone and the US is going to seriously mess up the Japanese air attacks.

If warships are to be in place behind the subs then the Japanese have to close perilously close to Oahu and risk early detection by all sorts of ships, aircraft, etc. Again, an alert US means the likely outcome is not in favor of the Japanese.

Off in Asia, the lack of Japanese attacks on Malaysia in the opening days of the war means the Asiatic fleets of the US, DEI, and British unite per their pre-war plan and head to Manila to operate against Japan.

When this mass of warships runs into a Japanese invasion fleet off Borneo or Palawan lacking air cover on the Japanese part (no carriers around) the Allied fleet tears the Japanese invasion force a new one.

Even with heavy Allied losses, the Japanese losses would be sufficient to cause one or both of these invasions to fail with no immediate prospect of a follow up invasion.
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