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Old 02 Jul 15, 05:26
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Nebfer Nebfer is offline
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Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner View Post
Isn't it obvious? The Japanese baseball teams couldn't win versus their American opponents so the Japanese destroyed the playing field!
Team rivalry is serious business indeed.

Lets recap...

His 4 wave initial strike is flawed, attacking at dusk was not an option the IJN favored, as it meant returning at night, with a limited number of night qualified aircrews. Furthermore the strike aircraft likely would of had some problems with target acquisition in the looming darkness many planes that would of been knocked out probably would get missed, as such more planes survive the first wave.

2nd and 3rd waves are pure night operations and would also where rejected for the same reasons, lack of night qualified crews, furthermore due to the special tactics required by the modified torpedoes, it's likely that night use would be even more difficult, and per written it involves more torpedoes than they actually modified for the task, but about 50%

4th wave has nothing really wrong except that it's going to face stiff opposition.

Worse is the fact that with out the simultaneous strike on ships that historical did the fleet will sortie when the first wave strikes, and most of the ships will have left the harbor by the time anti ship strike will arrive.

To deal with this he has assembled practically every last submarine in the IJN that can be used at pearl, striping them away from their historical patrols, and placing 30 of them a few miles off the Harbor entrance, and use using them as torpedo/gunboats...

The Problem with this many 1st off is that when do they surface? If they do it shortly after the strike begins, then Coastal defenses will likely spot them, as it's still a bit light out, and their quite likely in range of a number of coastal battery's, depending on just how far out they are. Problem 2 the most likely assembly area is right in the zone of where a US Cruiser and her ASW escorts are conduction gunnery Drills.

This will push them to submerge, or risk detection, though that many subs in fairly close proximity to each other likely compounds the detection risk for submerged units anyway. It also likely pushes the group to other areas to also avoid being noticed.
So the likely gunnery component of this element is pointless. And with them submerged results in a vastly reduced detection ability's, particularly at night.

As a further element of this blockage is a battle line of IJN warships behind the subs to pick off leakers, the issue with this group is a extreme risk of detection, as it moves out of the marshal islands, and closes with Pearl.

As dose the invasion force and it's escorts.

Further complications involve the fact that sense this force is easily 3 times the size of the historical raid group, the ability to maintain radio silence is much harder, as is the success of the radio deception plan be harder to do, not to mention the much larger force involved makes their "disappearance", much more alarming than was historical. The US was keeping watch of IJN movements.

Another complication is that IJN logistics are very stretched operating out at pearl, the ships will have to return to their main operating bases to rearm, only fools will be rearming in a area that has potential hostiles (all it takes is one sub and one successful torpedo hit, and the IJN will bug out of the area...).

Further more the loss of IJN subs in the Malaya area could possibly prevent Force Zs destruction, not to mention the lack of IJN operations in the area, it's also possible the Operation Matador, may not happen due to lack of IJN movement in the area given that their Orders where to invade if the IJN looked about to do so, which they are not (also is the fact that British forces are not quite ready to do so).

In short the IJN forces are quite likely detected before the operation goes into effect, and the US forces put on alert. Turning the operation into a disaster for the IJN, though at a cost to the US forces.
The Sub force is likely largely swatted aside as their out of position due to US forces in their area of operations, the blocking force, is also doomed as the US forces sorting are much much heavier
The alerted US forces likely intercept the 1st wave, giving it a bloody nose, and making it's objectives largely pointless.

Edit: so did I miss anything?

Last edited by Nebfer; 02 Jul 15 at 05:45..
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