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Old 27 Jun 15, 23:17
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Draco Draco is offline
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Originally Posted by BobTheBarbarian View Post
If Japan wanted to go for Hawai'i in 1941 they would have had to have given up or seriously reduced their Centrifugal Offensive. This means they fail to secure in time the resources of Southeast Asia and the NEI. A Hawai'i in Japanese hands is not worth this outcome, considering resources are the whole reason they went to war in the first place. All the while, the South Pacific sea lanes would have remained open, as would the Burma Road. The Allies could then prepare for their counteroffensive with the Philippines and possibly the NEI still largely under their control. This is not something IGHQ would have deemed acceptable with a possibly extended campaign for Hawai'i going on. The priorities were: Southeast Asia first, later objectives (including Hawai'i) second.

To sum all that up, invading Hawai'i in 1941 was a non-starter for Japan. The objective was to secure the "Southern Resource Area" as quickly and painlessly as possible. Going after Hawai'i would have been an unacceptable diversion of men and materiel, something that flew in the face of strategic reasoning at the time. The ONLY logical scenario for a concerted Japanese effort against the Hawaiian Islands, one which has a decent chance of success, is Cook's, and even that assumes that it's a follow-up for a successful Battle of Midway. That's because for it to have worked the US carrier fleet needed to be taken out of the picture. IF that happened, then the Japs would've had free reign to do what they wanted. But it didn't, and even after Pearl Harbor our carriers could still have come to the archipelago's defense.
Read at least the opening post. Japan is capturing weak B. Borneo on the first day, so it has oil months before OTL, where it had to repair wells and installations because it allowed the British time to destroy them before invading. It is then capturing Malaya-Singapore in 5 weeks with multiple landings with support from planes in B. Borneo, Indochina and several CV (instead of pedalling 700 km down the peninsula for 2 months), the smae happens in Sumatra and then Ceylon (the largest rubber producer in the world).

Luzon provided no resources and absorbed large forces and shipping capacity supplying them at a critical time. Palawan, B. Borneo, Mindoro. Kauai and Maui are invaded by much smaller forces in a day.

OTL Saratoga took a torpedo some distance SW of Oahu in January, despite a nice fleet accompanying her. I'd like to see a slow CVE launching fighters over 2,000 miles from California with a smaller escort (since the Pacific fleet is mostly gone), despite Japanese subs, planes, warships, etc, based in Hawaii.

I'd also like to see B-17s landing and operating safely despite Japanese planes all over the place.

If the US was so mighty and invincible, why didn't it save the PI or even Wake with the large fleet (including 3 carriers) and abundant planes (including 8 B-17) that remained after the PH attack? In this scenario the US is much weaker, since it losses all the ships and planes in Hawaii, yet You are landing planes in Oahu.

Green Filipinos with rifles, MGs, etc, are just as useless as the troops, tanks, coastal guns, field artillery, etc, in Oahu without planes and warships.

Even if the Japanese get bored after several months of inactivity and want to take Luzon to get comfort women, allied infantry with MGs, etc, and without supplies or reinforcements are pretty useless against tanks, planes and naval guns as the invasions proved OTL in the PI, Burma, Malaya, the DEI, Hong Kong, Wake, Rabaul, etc,
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